Migration and integration on voters' minds in Germany

Germans vote to elect a new government on Sunday. Opinion polls suggest a win for the conservative union of the CDU and CSU, but big gains are also expected for the far-right Alternativ for Deutschland (AfD). Riding a wave of anti-migrant sentiment, the newcomers – founded in 2013 – are on track to post their best-ever figures at a federal election. 

Migration is one of the most important topics in this German election. A decade on from Angela Merkel's confident "we can manage this" message on refugees, those aiming to be the next chancellor of Germany are now singing a very different tune. 

Speaking last month in Davos, the CDU/CSU's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said "There are 500,000 within the last four years who came to Germany without any control. This has to be stopped immediately to get rid of this big problem in our country in terms of migration." 

Two fatal attacks, one in Magdeburg before Christmas and another in Munich last week, carried out by migrants with apparently very different motives have fired up the debate and given the AfD's chancellor candidate Alice Weidel plenty of talking points. 

"Ending illegal migration and lawlessness, deporting criminals and those who have entered the country illegally, restoring security in public spaces," she said, when asked for her priorities. "Quite simply, enforcing law and order." 

Current Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, the Social Democrats (SPD), languishes in third place in the polls – well behind the conservatives and the far right. With political maneuvering well under way, he has passionately insisted that Germany should keep a political firewall in place to bar the AfD from any ruling coalition. 

Even before the campaigns went into full swing, he told the Bundestag "Never, really never, do we make common cause with the extreme right – because they stand for racism, for misogyny and for getting out of Europe, and because they are the greatest threat to Germany's future." 

Dresden voters have their say

Not everybody agrees with his assessment. In Saxony's state capital Dresden, the AfD has enjoyed electoral gains recently, with strong showings in last year's local and EU parliament elections. And while such midterm votes can sometimes serve as warnings for those in power, this feels more like a present threat, given the opinion polling for Sunday's federal election. 

Across the country, the conservative union has a pretty healthy lead in the polls – but here in Saxony, it's a very different story. Running pretty much neck and neck with the CDU, the AfD looks set to pick up a lot of votes in this region, formerly part of the GDR or East Germany. And judging by the people CGTN spoke to in Dresden, the desire to limit immigration seems to have struck a chord.

"Because we stewed in the same pot of soup for 40 years in the GDR, the aquarium was too small – you always encountered the same fish," says a man called Wolfgang. "And suddenly, so many other colorful fish appeared – and we are not used to that. Many people have a vague or diffuse fear of it, of foreignness, which I cannot explain."

"The AfD is very much in tune with people's wishes when it comes to right-wing radicalism," said a young woman called Danielle. "A lot of people have been really against refugees for years, ever since the massive waves of refugees came along, and the AfD is really in tune with that. And that's basically the focus of people's minds." 

"I'm not against foreigners or anything – not at all," said another woman, who did not want to give her name. "But there are so many now that it's just impossible to cope. They're no longer being integrated, there are just too many. You can't look after the people enough."

With AfD currently predicted to take around 34 percent of the vote in Saxony and 20 percent nationally, excluding them from any future coalition-building talks after Sunday could cause further headaches for the established parties. 

The SPD, CDU and Greens have very different ideas on prioritizing what needs to be done; even if the rising AfD is kept out of power, finding a coalition with enough seats for a majority in the Bundestag may be the most challenging part of this election.