Mega poll shows European gloom over relationship with U.S. in wake of Trump win

A huge poll of citizens of 14 European countries has reported widespread public gloom about the transatlantic relationship with the U.S.

The poll of 18,507 respondents by the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank found that more people were likely to call the U.S. a "necessary partner" rather than an "ally".

The ECFR surveyed 11 EU member states Bulgaria, (Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain) plus Switzerland, the UK and Ukraine. 

Its report showed that "a newly pessimistic and transactional view of the transatlantic partnership" prevailed, although the survey showed marked intra-European differences. 

According to the report: "Europeans see the U.S. less as an ally sharing the same interests and values, and more as a necessary partner with whom they must strategically cooperate."

However, the poll also finds evidence that respondents of different political outlooks view Trump quite differently and want varying types of future transatlantic relationship.  

The most common view among respondents was that the U.S. is not an "ally" but rather a "necessary partner" with which Europeans must strategically cooperate. This was the case even in traditional Atlanticist strongholds - like Poland and Denmark. 

According to the authors: "Though our polling cannot confirm causality, we contend that Trump's political return and ultimate election victory may be the main contributing factor."

There was a notable division within supporters of Europe's far-right parties, with attitudes to the U.S. among supporters of France's National Rally (RN) remaining largely unchanged while Alternative for Germany (AfD) supporters feeling increasingly positive about U.S. relations. 

"Most upbeat are supporters of right-wing populist parties: for example, not even a fifth of voters for Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) and Confederation (Konfederacja) parties, or Meloni's Brothers of Italy (FdI), believe his re-election is a 'bad thing'" for American voters, their own country, or peace in the world," said the report. 

Supporters of more mainstream parties have all become more negative to the U.S. since Trump's election. 

This is perhaps not surprising, considering that in his first term in office Trump referred to the EU as a "foe" and Brussels as being "like a hellhole", while his threats of tariffs against goods from within the bloc continue. 

There are marked differences of opinion between and within European countries - especially between supportive respondents in south-eastern Europe and detractors in northern and western parts.

The country that was most favorable to the U.S. was the UK, with 37 percent of respondents regarding it as an "ally", although that figure was lower than the 44 percent who think of it as a "necessary partner."

Least favorable was Bugaria, with only 11 percent of respondents giving the U.S. ally status. 

Report authors Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelliis and Pawel Zerka, ECFR senior policy fellows, do see some positives for mainstream supporters of European unity to cling onto.

They wrote that respondents' "apprehension could create the basis for a pragmatic European approach to the US over the next four years - neither starry-eyed nor entirely rejectionist - that commands broad majorities in most societies.

"Our findings hold out the possibility that, while some lights go out on the traditional, mainstream European commitment to the transatlantic relationship, new ones start to flicker on what have until recently been the European margins. 

"If Trump hits Europe with tariffs that hurt working-class European voters, or if his peace plan for Ukraine turns out to be a disaster, he may lose some of the good will from the European far-right that he currently seems to enjoy."

In its main findings, Puglierin, Varvelliis and Zerka said: "Building a broad coalition of 'Euro-optimists' along with more cautious groups can help European leaders resist any such attempts - and even forge a new dawn in transatlantic relations."

They continued: "The transatlantic twilight is a moment of opportunity and clarification. It forces European leaders to relearn the art of pragmatism in foreign policy."

The authors say that although "darkness does indeed seem to be falling for some as-yet indeterminate period stretching into the future", there are already positive signs.

The authors note "glimpses of European leaders" developing the aforesaid coalitions they deem necessary to counter Trump's bombast.