The populist and the scientist: Croatia's presidential candidates

The two candidates who go head to head in Sunday's election run-off for Croatia's presidency could hardly be more different.

One is a former amateur boxer and wily political veteran whose populist messaging has won support, while the other is an academic and scientist who has struggled to make his mark.

Zoran Milanović

Incumbent president Zoran Milanović was just 4,000 votes short of winning outright in the first round of the presidential elections. 

He is formally a leftist, a social democrat, but made many concessions to the right and captured a wide area in the pool of votes. 

His critics say there are elements of populist rhetorics in his performance. Milanović's worldview is closest to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. He is also an opponent of the expansion of NATO to the east, towards Russia, and is a fierce opponent of sending Croatian soldiers on non-combat and combat missions to Ukraine. 

"It's not our war," Milanović repeatedly said. He has strongly condemned the Israeli model of war in Gaza.

Milanović is widely regarded as a superb orator. Local analysts and opinion polls suggest his victory in the second round is as certain as death and taxes. 

The presidential election in Croatia is a competition for a position with little authority. In military matters the president is the commander-in-chief, while in the sphere of secret services and diplomacy he co-signs decisions on appointments. 

The power is actually with the government of his political adversary Andrej Plenković of the HDZ political party. Today, the HDZ has almost all institutions under their control. 

If MIlanović wins with 65 or more percent of the votes, Milanović will receive a new injection of legitimacy and remain the most serious opposition to the government. 

Also, as the most outspoken opponent of the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, in the second mandate he would, most likely, express this position more loudly.

Dragan Primporac

Officially an independent candidate, but originated and supported by the ruling HDZ, Dragan Primorac seemed to be an outsider from the beginning of the presidential race. 

Before the first round, his platform was the formula of national reconciliation, brotherhood of all Croatian citizens, and the cooperation. But his first round results were disappointing.

Primorac achieved the second worst result of all HDZ candidates in the presidential elections in the last 32 years. Yet he had more votes than other candidates and entered the second round. For that one, he changed actics. 

Now he is fighting. He rolled up his sleeves and invited Milanović to the ring. "Milanović is taking you to the east, I'm taking you to the west," Primorac said. "Do you want to have the categories Parent 1 and Parent 2 in the forms for children and not father and mother," he asked citizens, recommending himself to the conservative electorate. 

As the local analysts say, the second round of the election is not about Primorac, but about premier Plenković. There is no doubt the HDZ will give its best to gain more support for Primorac than in the first round, as a show of strength in the face of political opponent Milanović. 

When is the run-off?

The elections are held on Sunday January 12, when a large number of citizens are skiing in Austria, Italy and France. The turnout could be lower, which suits Primorac. 

The party that supports him has a larger base and covers the whole of Croatia, so it will mobilize many of its people to go to the polls.