Will Trump's NATO threats make members boost defense spending?

Donald Trump has repeated calls for NATO members to more than double defense spending to five percent of GDP, underlining his long-standing claims that they are underpaying for U.S. protection.

"They can all afford it, but they should be at five percent not two percent," the incoming US president told reporters.

"Europe is in for a tiny fraction of the money that we're in," Trump said. "We have a thing called the ocean in between us, right? Why are we in for billions and billions of dollars more money than Europe?"

Trump has long been skeptical of NATO, established in the aftermath of World War II, and last month reiterated a familiar threat to leave the alliance if its members did not step up spending.

The transatlantic alliance's 32 countries in 2023 set a minimum level for defense spending of two percent of gross domestic product. Russia's conflict with Ukraine has jolted NATO to strengthen its eastern flank and ramp up military resources.

Trump is not the only top official to call for an increase - NATO chief Mark Rutte likewise said last month that "we are going to need a lot more than two percent."

European NATO members are currently discussing raising the alliance's defense spending target to 3 percent of GDP.

So which NATO members are meeting the current NATO requirement and what do they say about increased spending?

NATO members' defense expenditure as GDP share (Source: Nato, July 2024)

Countries who meet it:

Poland 4.12%

Estonia 3.43%

United States 3.37%

Latvia 3.15%

Greece 3.08%

Lithuania 2.85%

Finland 2.41%

Denmark 2.37%

United Kingdom 2.33%

Romania 2.25%

North Macedonia 2.22%

Norway 2.2%

Bulgaria 2.18%

Sweden 2.14%

Germany 2.12%

Hungary 2.11%

Czech Republic 2.1%

Türkiye 2.09%

France 2.06%

Albania 2.03%

Montenegro 2.02%

Countries who don't:

Slovakia 1.99%

Netherlands 1.85%

Croatia 1.81%

Portugal 1.55%

Italy 1.49%

Canada 1.37%

Belgium 1.3%

Luxembourg 1.29%

Slovenia 1.29%

Spain 1.28%

Further commitments from member countries:

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, tipped to become chancellor in next month's election, said Germany would spend more on defense but would not commit to a figure. 

"The 2, 3 or 5 percent (targets) are basically irrelevant, the decisive factor is that we do what is necessary to defend ourselves," said Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats, to broadcaster Bayerischer Rundfunk.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday rebuffed a proposal to almost double the defense budget, seeking to position himself as a voice of moderation ahead of snap polls next month. 

Significantly increasing defense spending "without saying what the money will be spent on and where it will come from" was a "half-baked" idea, Scholz told the Stern weekly.

"Who will pay the bill? The citizens?" the German leader said.

Last month British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his government's plan to increase defense spending to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), after NATO called on members to boost spending to meet threats from Russia.

The Czech Republic is prepared to discuss raising defense spending and 3 percent of gross domestic product may be a realistic level to reach within several years, Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on Wednesday.

In July, Pedro Sánchez, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, defended his country's record, despite its spending being well below the minimum 2 percent requirement.  He insisted the goal would be achieved by 2029, a pledge that won't impress Trump. 

Last month's collapse of the French government was seen as undermining the country's defense plans. A freeze on spending plans meant the delay to a €3.3 billion ($3.4 billion) defense spending rise agreed as part of a seven-year military planning law. 

Hélène Conway-Mouret, a Socialist senator who co-authored a report on France's 2025 defense budget, told Politico: "Even with the €3.3 billion boost, the seven-year military planning law is not ambitious enough."

In an interview with Il Foglio newspaper, Italy's Defense Minister, Guido Crosetto, offered conditional support for the 3 percent target, even though that would mean more than doubling his country's current spending. Crosetto insisted on EU financial support to facilitate this.

Türkiye is set to see its defense commitments fall below the 2 percent target in 2025, with estimates suggesting its $33.7 billion defense bill would amount to just 1.8 percent of GDP.

In December, NATO head Mark Rutte warned the U.S.-led group that it was not ready for the threats it would face from Russia in the coming years and called for a shift to a wartime mindset, with much higher defense spending beyond the 2 percent target.

"Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation: with Ukraine and with us," Rutte said in a speech in Brussels.

"We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years," the NATO secretary-general said, adding: "It is time to shift to a wartime mindset, and turbocharge our defense production and defense spending."