Armenia warns of escalation risk after Azeri leader calls it 'fascist'

The decades-long antipathy between neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia has taken a turn for the worse this week. 

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev accused Armenia of posing a "fascist" threat that needs to be destroyed, in comments that Armenia's leader called a possible attempt to justify fresh conflict.

In a separate move, Armenia's government approved a bill calling for the country to launch a bid to join the European Union.

The two former Soviet republics – situated between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea to the east of Türkiye and north of Iran – have fought a series of wars since the late 1980s. That's when Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan that had a mostly Armenian population, broke away with support from Armenia.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan retook Karabakh, prompting almost all of the territory's 100,000 Armenians to leave en masse to Armenia. Both sides have since said they want to sign a treaty to end the conflict.

However, in an interview with Azerbaijani television channels on Tuesday night, Aliyev said: "Armenia is effectively a source of threat to the region. The independent Armenian state is essentially a fascist state. For nearly 30 years, this country was governed by bearers of fascist ideology, and they shaped the state in their own image.

"Therefore, fascism must be eradicated," he added. "It will either be eradicated by Armenia's leadership or by us. There is no other way."

In comments to state news agency Armenpress, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country remained intent on peaceful negotiations.

"Perhaps [the Azeri capital] Baku is attempting to form 'legitimacy' for escalation in the region," Armenpress cited Pashinyan as saying.

Armenia targets EU membership

On Thursday, Armenia's government in the capital Yerevan approved a bill calling for the country to try to join the EU.

Yerevan has in recent years deepened ties with the West at the expense of its relations with Moscow, which it has accused of failing to defend it from Azerbaijan.

The bill was drawn up following a successful petition, the government backed its introduction to parliament, saying it would represent "the beginning of the accession process of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union."

Brussels did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia needed to understand Brussels' position, and that Armenia could not join the EU while remaining a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, a trading bloc of some post-Soviet countries.

Three other former members of the Soviet Union - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - have joined the EU, a years-long negotiating process requiring harmonization with Brussels' legislation, among other things.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan underlined to the cabinet on Thursday that the public should not expect a rapid accession, and that it would in any case require approval by referendum.

In 2023, Pashinyan told the European Parliament that Armenia was ready to move as close to the EU as possible, although he stopped short of backing full membership.

Though Armenia's relations with the EU are warm, joining will not be easy. The landlocked, mountainous country of 2.7 million people shares no border with the EU – and the situation is complicated by its decades-long conflict with Azerbaijan, a major gas supplier to EU countries.

A complicated conflict

Peace talks between Baku and Yerevan have been fitful and progress has been slow. They have no formal diplomatic ties and their 1,000-kilometer border remains closed and heavily militarized.

Azerbaijan has said that before a treaty can be signed, Armenia must change its constitution to remove what Baku says are claims to its territory. Armenia says it makes no claim on Azerbaijani lands. Aliyev has also previously suggested that parts of Armenia are rightfully Azerbaijani lands.

Aliyev said that his country wanted no return to war, but that Armenia, which is several times smaller than Azerbaijan in both population and area, was rearming for conflict. 

He also said that Azerbaijan would secure the Zangezur corridor – a route across Armenia connecting the majority of Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan enclave and close ally Türkiye. 

Armenia says it is not against unblocking transport routes across its territory, but must retain control of any such corridor. If the Zangezur corridor were to come under Azeri control, that would in turn split Armenian territory, which is unacceptable to Yerevan.