The Russo-Ukraine conflict is nearing its third anniversary, in late February. A month before that milestone, on January 20th, the inauguration of Donald Trump will be staged in Washington D.C. as he becomes the United States' 47th President.
Usually largely ceremonial, that day is significant, as Trump has said that once he's president he will be able to facilitate a deal to stop the conflict within 24 hours. So far, the details how that would be achieved have been scant.
Various peace plans have been offered, but not seriously discussed. Meetings, summits and conferences have been organised and photographs taken. Handshakes have been firm. But the conflict and the killing is continuing.
City after city, town after town are being depopulated by missiles, drones and artillery fire. They become ghost towns, with only the depressed and the desperate remaining behind – as well as thousands of soldiers, who seem willing to defend, and die for, the Motherland.
Long after battles have ceased, the names of towns along the frontline are often a testimony to suffering. Pokrovsk follows Bakhmut and Mariupol.
In mid-December, Russian President Vladimir Putin held his choreographed annual press conference. He answered questions and spoke about what he still calls the "special military operation."
He tried to reassure Russians that things are progressing well, that the goals of the attack are on track. It is plausible that Russia may well retain control of the 20 percent of Ukraine's territory that it currently controls.
In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces mounting casualties, fewer weapons – and Trump returning to the White House, which has been one of Ukraine's key military suppliers. A U.S. Department of State announcement in mid-December calculated Washington had given Zelenskyy "$61.4 billion in military assistance" since February 2022.
Changing geopolitics
The Ukrainian conflict never existed in a vacuum, but since the October 7th 2023 Hamas attack on Israel triggered reprisals and warfare in the Middle East, it has been merely another part of an increasingly unstable, unpredictable and changing geopolitical environment – one which neither Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. or the EU fully control. The question after January 20th is how much control will the Trump Administration be interested in wielding?
Russia isn't planning to end its attacks. Putin says he has hundreds of thousands registered to fight.
"Last year, over 300,000 of our citizens, our men, came to the military registration and enlistment offices and signed contracts to serve in the armed forces," he declared. "This year, at the moment, there are already over 430,000. And this flow of volunteers is actually not stopping."
Rescuers work at a site of a Kharkiv apartment block damaged by a Russian drone strike on December 20, 2024. /Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters
Zelenskyy is still hoping for Western military and political support, especially NATO membership. If a ceasefire is possible, he's open to the idea of international peacekeepers, he says.
Trump has been blunt: he expects Zelensky to agree to a deal – even if it takes longer than 24 hours. "He should be prepared to make a deal," Trump asserted. "That's all. Got to be a deal. Too many people being killed. …. And Putin has to make a deal too. Putin has to make a deal."
It's been a third exhaustive year of fighting and defending. Ukraine has a shortage of soldiers, weapons and worries that 60 percent of its energy infrastructure has been severely damaged. It is another cold winter.
Civilians face weekly missile barrages and soldiers on both sides die in battle or killed by bombs fired from far away – all of them affected by decisions made even farther away, in some cases thousands of kilometers away.