France's minority government appeared to be in its final hours Tuesday as opposition lawmakers from the left and the far right vowed to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier's cabinet.

A no-confidence vote is scheduled Wednesday in parliament in the wake of a divisive budget debate, with a strong chance of being successful.

If the motion passes, Barnier's cabinet would be the shortest-lived government in France's modern history, marking an unprecedented period of political instability.

President Emmanuel Macron would be in charge of appointing a new prime minister. He too is under some pressure to step down, although he has so far refused to countenance it.

 

Why is the situation so volatile?

Barnier has only been in power for three months, and France's politics have become increasingly sharply divided recently. 

In the 2022 legislative election, Macron's centrist allies lost their absolute majority, resulting in France's first hung parliament since 1988. After two difficult years, Macron called snap elections for June-July this year. 

However, the 2024 results only exacerbated the problem – with the National Assembly, France's powerful lower house of parliament, being divided into three major blocs. 

A left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front won 180 of the assembly's 574 seats, Macron's centrist allies won 159, and the far-right National Rally party won 142 – creating so much argument about the possible makeup of the government that Macron delayed the decision until after the Paris Olympics. 

In September, Macron asked Barnier, a conservative, to form a government dominated by centrists and the liberal-conservative Republicans — implicitly relying on the far right's goodwill to be able to stay in power. 

After a stand-off over next year's budget, on Monday Barnier used special powers to force it through without a vote in parliament – predictably enraging his opponents and sparking the current crisis.

 

How does the no-confidence motion work?

A no-confidence motion requires a majority of National Assembly votes to pass — or at least 288 lawmakers. Adding together various factions, the left and the far right include more than 330 lawmakers — although some may abstain from voting.

After Barnier forced through the finance bill, the left-wing coalition denounced an "austerity budget" and criticized "the absence of dialogue and disregard for parliamentary work." Crucially, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen joined in to say her party will vote to bring the government down.

Asked on French television if there was a chance his government could survive Wednesday's vote, Barnier replied: "I want this and it is possible… I think it is possible that there is this reflex of responsibility where - beyond political differences, divergences, the normal contradictions in a democracy – we tell ourselves that there is a higher interest."

 

What happens if the government falls?

If the government falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou's government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president. The lifespan of Barnier's government would also be the shortest of any administration of France's Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.

Macron could ask outgoing ministers to handle current affairs pending the appointment of a new prime minister, although the New Popular Front has asked for a left-wing cabinet to be appointed instead.

No favorite figure to replace Barnier has emerged yet. French media report that Macron could pick a politician from his centrist alliance, with Francois Bayrou and loyalist Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu possible contenders.

The parliament's fractured composition would remain the same. No new legislative elections can be held before July, because under the French Constitution, the National Assembly must remain in place for a minimum of one year.

 

Could Macron be at risk?

Some opposition lawmakers are calling for Macron himself to resign to break the political impasse, but the French president has ruled out that option, saying such a scenario amounted to "political fiction".

"It's frankly not up to scratch to say these things," Macron told reporters on the sidelines of his visit to Saudi Arabia. 

"I was elected twice by the French people. I am extremely proud of this and I will honour this trust with all the energy that is mine until the last second to be useful to the country," added Macron, who is due to serve until 2027.

Socialist party leader Olivier Faure called on Macron to make his intentions clear should the Barnier government fall.

"Rather than dropping little remarks during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Emmanuel Macron now needs to speak to the French people," Faure said. "How can he leave the French people in this uncertainty just before Christmas?"

Macron, meanwhile, accused Le Pen of "unbearable cynicism" in backing the no confidence motion, saying "We must not scare people with these things" and insisting he could "not believe" that the motion would pass.

 

What will happen with the controversial budget?

France is at no risk of a government shutdown, of the type that in some countries including the United States would disrupt many services and squeeze federal employees.

An outgoing government could present a special law to levy taxes from January 1, based on this year's rules. It would also be able to decide on renewing spending by decree in order to pay civil servants, pensions and other key government expenses.

However, this would suspend any potential tax hike — like one initially expected on big companies — and freeze any new spending.

In particular, an additional $3.5 billion package for the French military was planned as the country supports Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Later, a new government could present its own budget proposals at parliament.

 

Why are markets spooked?

In a last-ditch effort to save his government, Barnier warned of "a big storm and very serious turbulence on the financial markets."

France is under pressure from the European Union's executive body to reduce its colossal debt. The country's deficit is estimated to reach 6 percent of gross domestic product this year and analysts say it could rise to 7 percent next year without drastic adjustments.

The political instability could push up French interest rates, digging the debt even further.

In addition, without a clear parliamentary majority, no major reform appears within the reach of a new government.