2024 Irish Election Preview: Three-way race as housing crisis tops concerns

Ireland goes to the polls on Friday 29 November to elect a new government, with the incumbent Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael parties poised to return to power according to the latest polls.

The two centrist parties are on course to form the bulk of a new coalition with around twenty percent of the vote each projected, they would then need the support of another party such as the Greens or Labour.

Once sworn enemies of Ireland’s civil war, now Fianna Fail (Irish for 'Soldiers of Destiny') and Fine Gael (Gaelic for 'Tribe of the Irish') share common ground - the political centre and conservative ground.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have shared power for a hundred years in Ireland and the only party that looks capable of breaking that duopoly is Sinn Féin.

The party that emerged from the political wing of the IRA is left-leaning, wants a united Ireland and has presented itself as the only alternative to 'more of the same' politics.

Ireland's party leaders

Simon Harris is Ireland’s current Taoiseach, or Prime Minister, at only 38 years of age he's campaigning under the slogan 'New Energy' and is preaching a continuation of a prudent and cautious economic path.

He would argue a successful one too, Ireland’s rise to the economic elite - on paper at least - has come through a booming economy driven by massive tax windfalls on global giants like Google, Facebook, Intel, and Pfizer, largely due to Ireland’s low corporate tax rate of around 15 percent.

Campaign-trail missteps have cost Harris, however, particularly a narky response to a care worker in Kanturk where he walked away while the woman was almost in tears at being 'forgotten' in the last budget.

Fianna Fail is led by Michael Martin, a seasoned politician in his mid-sixties presenting himself as the experienced adult in the room who's seen it all before and can keep the ship steady in uncertain times.

Mary-Lou McDonald, 55, heads up Sinn Fein, taking over as party leader from Gerry Adams in 2018 as the first leader who was not involved in the Troubles in Northern Ireland.

While a united Ireland is Sinn Fein's main goal, McDonald has presented herself as the candidate of change, promised big things on housing and infrastructure, winning many supporters along the way.

'It's now very clear that there can be government beyond Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, that for the first time we can have a government led by Sinn Féin,' said McDonald this week.

Sinn Fein actually won the popular vote four years ago but didn’t run enough candidates to secure sufficient seats in the Dail to form a government.

There are, however, some doubts about Sinn Féin's ability to govern and to deliver on promises made, and support has dropped considerably over the past two years due to party scandals and a wavering stance on immigration.

The Issues - 'First world income, third-world infrastructure.'

Ireland is a contradictory, cautionary tale of success.

On one hand it has so much money that it doesn’t know what to do with it - particularly the 14 billion dollar-plus bonanza that the EU forced Apple to pay Ireland in back taxes recently, part of a wider European crackdown on so-called 'sweetheart' tax deals. 

On the other hand you have a disgruntled electorate angry about the lack of housing and a cost of living crisis.

Its success has seen the country’s population rise from 3.5 million in 1990 to 5.38 million today and the housing supply simply hasn't kept up. Young people say renting isn't even an option, and you can forget about buying. 500,000 adults live with their parents, average first-time home ownership has shifted to almost 40 years of age, and rising homelessness has angered many - particularly the younger generation.

Right below housing, healthcare, childcare, public transport and immigration top the list of concerns, one of Ireland’s most listened-to economists, David McWilliams, says Ireland has 'first world income with third-world infrastructure.'

How to solve a housing crisis

The three main parties are well aware of the main issue in this election cycle, and many promises are being made.

Fianna Fáil insists the foundations are in place for 60,000 homes a year by 2030.

Fine Gael expects 41,000 residential properties will be built in 2025 and that figure will steadily increase to 60,000 in 2030.

Both aim for around 300,000 new homes built by 2030, but are still off the Central Bank estimate requirements of 70,000 new homes annually.

Sinn Féin wants to present itself as the most ambitious, promising 370,000 houses by 2030, but doubts have been cast on the details of the plan.

Trump tariffs: "America can only become great again if Ireland stops running a trade surplus at U.S. expense."

In foreign policy, Ireland is a rare country where all big party leaders support an end to the Israeli war and occupation in Gaza.

But there may be trouble if Donald Trump follows through on his tariff pledges.

His pick for commerce secretary is Wall St. CEO Howard Lutnick, who recently said "America can only become great again if Ireland stops running a trade surplus at U.S. expense."

The US is the largest importer in the world and is one of Ireland’s largest export markets, particularly for medical and pharmaceutical products along with food and drink.

Trump aims to bring jobs back to the States, and most of the big pharma and medical giants in Ireland are actually North American, like Pfizer and Boston Scientific for example.

Experts argue that these companies have already invested billions of dollars in plants and infrastructure in Ireland and it won’t be so easy for them just to pack up and leave, but there is caution in the air

In the final debate on Tuesday evening, Harris urged caution and talked-up Ireland’s surplus as a shield against a potential economic crash and tried to paint Sinn Féin as the 'spend baby spend' party, accusing them of selling reckless spending plans.

Irish election: "Too close to call"

McDonald referred to Harris and Martin as 'Tweedledum and Tweedledee' who were colluding to keep her out of government.

She said the two men were now "indistinguishable" from each other as she claimed they were suffering "acute amnesia" in regard to their records in government.

In her best moment in Tuesday's debate, she pointed to Michael Martin and said "You brought the crash," referring to the 2008 economic crisis, and "you brought austerity," referring to Fine Gael's response.

"They have had ample chances, ample opportunity, to make things better, and they have failed, and in between the two of them I make the case that now we ask for our chance, with our plans, with our team, to demonstrate how change can happen, how your community, your family, yourself, can be supported when the government is actually on your side," McDonald said this week.

One thing they can all agree on is that nothing is guaranteed in this election, "too close to call" is Martin's verdict, while Harris said it is "all to play for".

Polls open Friday morning in Ireland with the first exit poll expected at around 10pm local time, counting will take place on Saturday and could potentially carry on into Sunday.