Election warehouse manager Michael Leonard works among empty ballot boxes that will be used for the upcoming general election. /Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters
A slide in support for Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris' Fine Gael party showed signs of stabilizing in the last opinion poll before Friday's general election that, if repeated, would likely see the centre-right led coalition return to government.
Fine Gael fell 2 percentage points to 20 percent in the Business Post/Red C poll but that was above the 19 percent it dropped to in a different survey on Monday after a series of campaign missteps eroded its pre-election lead.
Harris' main coalition partner, Fianna Fail, was the most popular party on 21 percent, unchanged from the last Red C poll taken at the start of the campaign, while the opposition Sinn Fein party was up two points to 20 percent.
Two of the three main parties will need to join together to form a coalition government if those numbers are broadly repeated on Friday. The last election in 2020 produced a similar result.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have both pledged to govern again without Sinn Fein, meaning the left-wing party, which had a commanding opinion poll lead until earlier this year, needs to finish well ahead of both to change the dynamic.
Ireland's Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and Fine Gael party leader Simon Harris attends a campaign event in Trim on Wednesday. /Toby Melville/Reuters
The poll was conducted between November 20-26, the first survey to more fully take into account an incident last Friday in which Harris was filmed walking away from a care worker who was complaining about disability service.
Harris has since apologised repeatedly for the exchange, a clip of which went viral.
An exit poll due shortly after voting ends at 2200 GMT on Friday will give a firm sense of the outcome, ahead of the main results that will come over the weekend.
Around the world in this record-breaking election year, voters have decided that something in their country is broken, and punished incumbent governments.
That sentiment also ripples through the campaign in Ireland, where rival center-right parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail took turns running the country for a century before forming a coalition administration in 2020. If some voters are turning on them, the anti-politician mood also is hitting left-of-center opposition party Sinn Fein, which not long ago appeared destined for power.
With voters set to fill all 174 seats in the Dáil, the lower house of parliament, opinion polls suggest voters' support is split into five roughly even chunks - for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents running the gamut from left-leaning to far right.
The issue that comes up most on the campaign trail is housing.
Apartments and houses are expensive - prices rose by 10 percent in the year to August - and there are not enough to go around. A housing commission set up by the government says Ireland has a "deficit" of up to 256,000 homes. Rents have soared, and many young teachers, nurses and other key workers can't afford a place of their own.
Eoin O'Malley, associate professor of political science at Dublin City University, said the cost of living squeeze means people in their 20s are "talking about emigration, even though there are plenty of jobs in Ireland."
"People are feeling that they can't settle down so they are going abroad to get their career going," he said. "So there's a fear among middle-class parents that 'My children will never come back again.'"
People sit on fences pulled down by demonstrators in protest against the Government's practice of fencing off public spaces and canal ways to prevent homeless and migrant encampments, in Dublin in August. /Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters
Immigration has risen on the political agenda as new arrivals transform a country long defined by emigration. About 20 percent of Ireland's population was born outside Ireland, and 120,000 foreigners moved to Ireland in the year to April, the biggest number since 2007.
Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa. This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests.
A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, sparked the worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades.
Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts.
The main political parties are trying to defuse the discontent, touting plans to get a grip on immigration and build many more houses.
Ireland's government has one advantage over many others: money, in part from 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in back taxes that the European Union ordered Apple to pay Ireland. The government initially opposed that payment, because low taxes are one of the key sweeteners Ireland has used to attract investment from major foreign companies.
The threat posed by tariff-loving U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to Ireland's economic model has not come up much on the campaign trail, though Prime Minister Simon Harris has said his Fine Gael party "is setting aside a very significant amount into future funds to protect our country from any economic shock."
Fianna Fail, led by Deputy Prime Minister Micheál Martin, has the edge in most polls, and the leader looks relaxed on the campaign trail. Encountering handshakes and selfie requests in the shops of Dublin's affluent Clontarf area, he acknowledged that "there is a need for new policies" — but not new governing parties.
Sinn Fein, which aims to reunite the Republic of Ireland and the U.K. territory of Northern Ireland, topped the popular vote at the last election in 2020 but was shut out of government because neither Fianna Fail nor Fine Gael would work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic links to the Irish Republican Army.
In recent months its poll ratings have plunged, due in part to a disconnect with its working-class voters over immigration. Party officials say Sinn Fein has gained momentum during the three-week election campaign, but its path to power remains limited by a lack of coalition partners.