A fragile peace: what we know about the Hezbollah - Israel ceasefire

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday, marking a potential end to over a year of hostilities that have devastated Lebanon and northern Israel. 

Brokered by the U.S. and France, the agreement seeks to implement a permanent cessation of violence. However, provisions and statements surrounding the deal suggest a complex path ahead.

Familiar foundations, new challenges

The terms of the ceasefire largely align with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, the framework that concluded the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Under the new deal, Hezbollah will withdraw its armed presence from southern Lebanon, with 5,000 Lebanese troops assuming control of the region. Israeli forces, in turn, will withdraw from Lebanese territory within 60 days.

Oversight by the U.S. and France is central to the agreement, with both nations pledging to monitor its implementation. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati described the deployment of Lebanese troops as a critical step in asserting the country's sovereignty over its southern border.

Israel's letter: a clause in spirit, not in ink

A sticking point in negotiations was Israel's demand for explicit provisions to strike back at Hezbollah should it violate the ceasefire. While the request was rejected by Lebanon, the U.S. reportedly issued a separate letter to Israel affirming its right to self-defense under international law.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlined his interpretation of the deal in a news conference on Tuesday, asserting that Israel would maintain "full freedom of military action" in Lebanon. 

"If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, digs a tunnel, or brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack," Netanyahu declared. 

U.S. President Joe Biden later echoed Israel's stance, emphasizing the right to self-defense while insisting that the ceasefire respects Lebanon's sovereignty. 

The cost of conflict

The urgency of the ceasefire is reflected in the human and economic toll of the conflict. In Lebanon, over 3,000 lives have been lost, with nearly one million displaced, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. 

Many of those displaced come from southern towns like Tyre and Nabatiyeh, which bore the brunt of Israeli airstrikes. Infrastructure across the south lies in ruins, from roads to schools to water systems.

In Israel, around 150 fatalities have been reported, including soldiers and civilians, while over 60,000 residents in northern communities have been forced to evacuate due to Hezbollah rocket fire. 

The financial cost is steep: Israeli estimates place economic losses from the conflict at $4 billion, while Lebanese officials warn that reconstruction efforts will require even more, placing a heavy burden on an economy already in freefall.

Rebuilding amid uncertainty

The ceasefire has allowed thousands of displaced Lebanese to begin returning to their homes in the south. Roads leading from Beirut to affected regions were crowded on Wednesday as families made the journey back. 

For many Lebanese, the process of rebuilding will be daunting, with villages still bearing the scars of intense bombardment and services like electricity and water far from restored.

The Lebanese government has appealed for international assistance to fund reconstruction and restore basic services in the south, where much of the infrastructure has been destroyed.

International reaction

In a joint statement, US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said: "The announcement today will cease the fighting in Lebanon, and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon." 

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters: "We (China) support all efforts conducive to de-escalating the tensions and realizing peace, and welcome the ceasefire agreement reached by relevant sides. In the meanwhile, China believes that the protracted fighting in Gaza is the root cause of this round of turmoil in the Middle East, and all parties need to work together to realize a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire in Gaza at an early date."

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called the deal "a ray of hope for the entire region."

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the ceasefire would "provide some measure of relief to the civilian populations" of both Israel and Lebanon.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the news, "first and foremost for the Lebanese and Israeli people affected by the fighting."

She added: "Lebanon will have an opportunity to increase internal security and stability thanks to Hezbollah's reduced influence."