COP29: Expect practicalities rather than promises, expert says

World leaders are gathering in Azerbaijan for the latest United Nations Climate Change conference, better known this year as COP29. 

While the planet's climate is clearly still heading toward catastrophe, the hope remains that the assembled dignitaries can come to some sort of accord – as has happened in the past, such as with the 2015 Paris Agreement which pledged to keep the temperature rise from pre-industrial levels to within two degrees Celsius, and preferably within 1.5 degrees.

Despite the many conflicting ecological and economic pressures coming to bear, COP rules insist any final texts must be agreed by consensus. Adair Turner, the widely-respected chairman of the UK's Energy Transitions Commission, told CGTN that's a tall order. 

"I find it amazing that COPs achieve anything," Turner said. "Because you've got 195 countries there – some of whom bluntly are at war with each other, and (with) others there's huge geopolitical tension – and they've got to try and agree a unanimous agreement. At one level, you could describe that and say, how do we achieve anything?" 

While Turner is impressed with previous COP achievements, he worries that the recent re–election of Donald Trump could limit U.S. commitments – and require the rest of the world to step up.

"China and Europe are going to have to play a crucial role in helping to maintain momentum," he said. "China is the biggest developer of renewable energy, and we need to build on the clear determination of Europe to stick to the path of a net zero pathway by 2050. And we need to engage with the rest of the world, the developing world as well."

Trump, a climate change skeptic, pledged to increase domestic drilling for fossil fuels and to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement, as he did during his first White House term from 2016 to 2020. Turner also worries about another Trump election pledge. 

"He has also promised, and this is one that really terrifies me, to roll back regulations on methane leaks – and methane leaks from the American shale gas system are a very major driver of global warming.

"Although I don't think he'll roll back the Inflation Reduction Act, he certainly won't reinforce it. And therefore, I think the likelihood of the U.S. getting anywhere near its promised reduction target of a 52 percent reduction in emissions below 2005 levels by 2030, that is unlikely to occur."

Clear progress in the past

That said, Turner notes that Trump's first presidential period coincided with clear progress on battling climate change. 

"Remember that actually between 2016 and 2020, when the previous 'Trump One' presidency had pulled out of the Paris Agreement, we made a lot of progress across the world towards a global commitment to dealing with climate change," he said. 

"That was the period in which Xi Jinping at the UN in 2020, while Donald Trump was still president, made a commitment that China would get to net zero by 2060. That was the period in which the UK and Europe tightened their targets and their policies. That was a period in which many financial institutions and companies across the world made commitments to net zero."

The major change since Paris 2015 is a decade of constant technological advancement, which Turner listed: "The reduction in the cost of solar PV, which is unbelievably dramatic and keeps on going on. The cost reduction in batteries and improvements in battery technology. The reduction in the cost of EVs, which in China are now lower cost than internal combustion engines. 

"Those technology trends are there and they will continue to give us greater opportunities to decarbonize the global economy, even if sadly, we no longer have the U.S. federal government as a positive force for action."

Practicalities not promises

After the UAE hosted COP28, the latest get-together is again hosted by a fossil fuel exporter, Azerbaijan. 

"The UAE did a good job of pushing us forward to some major commitments, like the commitment to triple renewables deployment across the world by 2030 and an agreement that we did have to move beyond fossil fuels. 

"Now, to be blunt, I'm not expecting similarly significant steps forward at Azerbaijan, but they are putting some things on the table which I think will push us forward. I would highlight, for instance, the desire to have a strong commitment about the need to invest in electric grids, transmission grids and storage capacity."

Overall, Turner counsels that this summit could be less about grand statements of intent and more about the nuts and bolts of reducing climate change. 

"Don't look for big new declarative statements about phasing down fossil fuels, focus more on the practical things that we need to do, like investing in long distance grids, investing in long duration storage to drive the progress towards the electrified decarbonized economy.

"My focus in Baku will be to try to encourage those practical commitments on the real detailed things that we do. I suspect this is going to be a COP which treads water in terms of the scale of overall global political commitment."

Interview by Jamie Owen