Why Europe is warily watching the U.S. election

With the United States on the brink of another historic presidential election, the world is watching closely as Republican candidate Donald Trump challenges Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

The race remains fiercely competitive, with polls showing no clear frontrunner. This uncertainty highlights the divisive and consequential nature of the election – not just for America, but for the entire global community.

For Europe, the stakes are particularly high, especially concerning its security and economic ties with Washington. 

In Ukraine, a nation heavily reliant on American support to fend against Russia, the election could significantly alter the trajectory of the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has cautioned that shifts in global politics "significantly impact Ukraine's ability to negotiate," emphasizing the vital need for consistent foreign aid.

While Harris has pledged to continue President Joe Biden's policies of supporting Ukraine, she has avoided endorsing Zelenskyy's repeated appeals for NATO membership, instead committing to "strengthening alliances" against Russia. 

Trump, on the other hand, has long advocated for a more aggressive approach to ending the conflict. He has vowed to resolve it swiftly, even before formally assuming office.

Despite these divergent approaches, many Ukrainians are skeptical of both candidates. Some fear Harris's strategy may lack tangible results, while others worry Trump's plan could involve concessions that come at the cost of Ukrainian territory, potentially leaving the nation in a vulnerable position no matter the outcome. 

The election also has implications for transatlantic trade relations. Trump has hinted at imposing tariffs on European imports, potentially straining the longstanding economic alliance. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner has voiced his concerns, warning that "a trade conflict between the United States and Europe would only have losers." 

Instead, Lindner has been a strong advocate for renewed diplomatic efforts to secure a transatlantic trade agreement. "It's in our mutual interest to deepen transatlantic economic relations and avoid new tariffs," Lindner said, noting that such a deal could help prevent economic friction at a time when Europe is struggling to maintain competitiveness in technology and innovation.

Beyond trade and defense, this election underscores Europe's reliance on the U.S. as a stabilizing force. Experts suggest that the next U.S. president – whether Trump or Harris – will shape Europe's approach to diversifying its economic and defense partnerships. In an increasingly multipolar world, the election outcome could prompt Europe to accelerate efforts toward greater autonomy and self-reliance.