How Spain's deadly DANA weather phenomenon is linked to climate change

Catastrophic flash floods that have killed at least 95 people in Spain are caused by a destructive weather system in which cold and warm air meet and produce powerful rain clouds, a pattern believed to be growing more frequent due to climate change.

The phenomenon is known locally as DANA, a Spanish acronym for high-altitude isolated depression, and unlike common storms or squalls it can form independently of polar or subtropical jet streams.

When cold air blows over warm Mediterranean waters it causes hotter air to rise quickly and form dense, water-laden clouds that can remain over the same area for many hours, raising their destructive potential. The event sometimes provokes large hail and tornadoes as seen this week, meteorologists say.

Eastern and Southern Spain are particularly susceptible to the phenomenon due to being positioned between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Warm, humid air masses and cold fronts meet in a region where mountains favor the formation of storm clouds and rainfall.

What happened this week

This week's DANA was one of the three most intense such storms in the last century in the Valencia region, said Ruben del Campo, spokesperson for the national weather agency Aemet.

"Forecasts were in line with what happened," he explained. "But in an area between Utiel and Chiva, in the province of Valencia, rainfall exceeded 300 liters per square meter. In that area, storm systems formed and regenerated continuously."

While experts say it will take time to analyze all the data to determine if this particular DANA was caused by climate change, most agree that an increase in temperature of the Mediterranean and warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions contribute to producing more frequent extreme episodes.

"We can't say anything on the fly, except that in the context of climate change, these types of events will be more frequent and more intense," said Spanish meteorologist and researcher Dr Ernesto Rodríguez Camino.

Old names, new trouble

Before the term DANA was coined in the early 2000s, any heavy rainfall in the autumn, characteristic of the Mediterranean climate, used to go by the popular name gota fria (cold drop) in Spain and parts of France. The term is still widely used colloquially.

Its origin dates back to 1886 when German scientists introduced the idea of kaltlufttropfen, or cold air drop, to describe high altitude disturbance but without apparent reflection on the surface.

Aemet says the concept of cold drop is outdated and defines DANA as a closed high-altitude depression that has become isolated and separated from an associated jet stream. Aemet says DANAs sometimes become stationary or even move backwards, from east to west.