Lithuanian election: What's at stake, who's leading and what happens next

On Sunday October 27, Lithuanians take to the polls, deciding the future of their government in a parliamentary election dominated by rising costs of living and growing security concerns about neighboring Russia. With the opposition Social Democrats (SD) currently in the lead following the first round of voting, the Baltic nation's political landscape may be poised for a shift.

What are the key issues?

For many of the 2.9 million Lithuanians, high inflation, deteriorating public services, and a widening economic gap are at the top of mind as they cast their votes. Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte's center-right coalition, which has governed since 2020, faces mounting dissatisfaction due to inflation that peaked above 20 percent and a strained healthcare system.

Yet, security concerns remain central in a country that shares borders with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, a close Moscow ally. Given Lithuania's position on NATO's eastern flank, fears of conflict with Russia weigh heavily. A recent poll found that three-quarters of Lithuanians worry about a potential Russian attack, underscoring the public's demand for a strong defense policy.

What's the voting process?

Lithuania uses a hybrid voting system for parliamentary elections. Half of the 141 seats are filled by a direct popular vote, while the remaining seats are decided through district-based run-off votes between the top two candidates. This system tends to favor larger political parties, giving the Social Democrats an edge as the country heads to this final round of voting.

Polling stations open at 7 a.m. local time (0400 GMT) and close at 8 p.m. (1700 GMT), with results expected around midnight.

Who's winning?

The Social Democrats emerged as the largest party after the October 14 first-round vote, securing 20 percent of the vote, followed by the ruling Homeland Union with 18 percent and the anti-establishment Nemunas Dawn with 15 percent. 

SD leader Vilija Blinkeviciute has indicated plans to form a coalition government with the For Lithuania party and the Farmers and Greens Union. Additionally, the SD has pledged to back any candidate running against the Homeland Union in run-off contests, further intensifying the competition for parliamentary seats.

If the Social Democrats succeed in forming a government, Lithuania's hawkish stance on Russia and substantial defense spending will likely remain in place. This year, Lithuania's defense expenditure is estimated to reach 3 percent of GDP, making it one of NATO's top six military spenders.

What do the Social Democrats pledge to do?

While national security is a pressing issue, domestic economic concerns dominated much of the election campaign. The Social Democrats have promised to tackle growing inequality by raising taxes on wealthier Lithuanians. The additional revenue would support increased spending on healthcare, education and social services, addressing public demand for improved living standards amid rising costs.

Could Lithuania shift to the left?

With both domestic and international issues at stake, Sunday's vote will reveal whether Lithuanians want a change in leadership. As the polls close and votes are tallied, all eyes will be on whether the Social Democrats can form a coalition and deliver on their promises for economic reform while maintaining Lithuania's steadfast stance on national security.