Can a seventh election in four years bring stability to Bulgaria?

Bulgaria holds its seventh election in less than four years on Sunday, with few believing there will be an end to the political turmoil that has favored the far right and fostered voter apathy.

The EU's poorest nation has been plagued by unrest since massive anti-corruption protests toppled the cabinet of conservative three-time prime minister Boyko Borisov in 2021.

Could this election finally create a resolution?

Voter turnout, predicted at around 30 percent, is expected to be the lowest since the 1990s.

Short of an unexpected political partnership or the sudden emergence of a unifying leader, most analysts anticipate the country will be back at the ballot box early next year.

"There is a deep crisis of the political system," said Ognyan Minchev, professor of political science at Sofia University.

What are Bulgaria's problems?

The dysfunction is worrying for Bulgaria, a Balkan country of 6.4 million people that borders the Black Sea. Its accession to the EU in 2007 ushered in a period of optimism marked by rising living standards and rapid economic growth. 

But the global financial crisis, COVID and conflict in Ukraine have dented foreign investment.

Now, it is in dire need of a period of stable government to accelerate the flow of EU funds into its creaking infrastructure and to nudge it towards joining the euro.

Who is vying for power? 

President Rumen Radev gave the center-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party a mandate to form a government after the last election in June in which the party won the most votes and secured 68 seats in the 240-seat parliament.

But it failed to form a majority coalition. Other parties were then offered the mandate, but failed as well, triggering this latest election.

The other two main parties are the reformist pro-Western bloc We Continue the Change (PP) and the ultranationalist pro-Russian Revival party.

A split in the Movement for Rights and Freedom party, which mainly represents Bulgaria's large ethnic Turkish minority and had produced a solid voting block in recent elections, has made coalition building even more difficult, according to analysts.

The pro-Russia right-wing Vazrazhdane party has gained popularity after proposing a law banning LGBTQ "propaganda" passed by a large majority in parliament in August. 

What is the likely outcome?

According to analysts, two scenarios are possible. The conservatives will either partner with the reformers - or put forward a minority cabinet and rely on tacit backing in parliament from former tycoon Delyan Peevski, who is under U.S. and British sanctions.

In June, voter turnout hit its lowest since the end of communism at just 34 percent and there are predictions that Sunday could have a similar turnout, amid fears of electoral fraud.

Prolonged political instability has seen Bulgaria's goals to join the eurozone and the free movement Schengen area via land slip further away.

Key anti-corruption reforms as well as the country's energy transition have also been put on hold, jeopardising the payout of European funds.

Optimism remains low among voters. Sofia-based real estate agent Stiliyan Todorov said: "I have decided to vote because I hope that we will finally have a regular government. But those hopes may have sunk into the ground by now."