A scientist uses a texture analyser and a refractometer to determine the firmness and sugar content of a pear at the University of Leuven. /Bart Biesemans/Reuters
In the Belgian province of Limburg, one of the orchards in the country's pear-growing heartland stands out as unusual: a cluster of 12 transparent domes, perched high by a mirrored wall above the surrounding nature park.
Inside the domes, researchers are growing pears in a controlled environment that simulates how climate change will affect the region in 2040. Their aim is to prepare Europe's fruit growers for the effects of global warming.
"We expect more heatwaves and less even precipitation, so more droughts and floods as well. And overall, slightly higher temperatures," Francois Rineau, associate professor at the University of Hasselt, said of the simulated climate inside the domes.
Early results from the scientists' first harvest in 2023 suggest Belgian pears may be spared some of the worst impacts of climate change - which scientists expect to cut some crop yields and hike growers' costs for irrigation to combat drought.
A scientist picks pears in Ecotron, a research facility in which researchers from the University of Hasselt are studying the effects of climate change on biodiversity. /Bart Biesemans/Reuters
"The effect of climate change at the 2040 horizon on the quality of pears was very minor. However, we found a difference in how the ecosystem was functioning," Rineau said.
Year-to-year variability means one year alone cannot capture intermittent extreme weather and other changes in the climate which can wreak havoc on crops. The three-year experiment will cover three harvests.
This year's harvest of 2040-era pears is being studied at the Flanders Centre of Postharvest Technology (VCBT), to check the fruits' size, firmness and sugar content - and compare them to pears grown in domes simulating today's climate.
"If we have a higher temperature on the trees, pears tend to be less firm and have more sugar," VCBT researcher Dorien Vanhees said.
That's bad news for growers. Less-firm fruit survives a shorter period in storage, reducing the quantity of pears growers can sell.
Floods, hail and drought have already affected European pear growers in recent years, as climate change begins to leave fingerprints on growing patterns.
Belgium's pear production is expected to plunge by 27 per cent this year, according to the World Apple and Pear Association, owing to factors including an unusually early bloom and unusually late frost.
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