Rising deaths, declining births threaten Ukraine's long-term future

Ukraine holds two demographic records in the World Fact Book published by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. It is simultaneously the country with the lowest birth rate and the highest mortality rate.

Each year, 18.6 out of every 1000 residents die, 3.4 more than next-placed Lithuania. There are just six births per 1,000 people. The Ukrainian ministry of Health calculates that the number has been falling annually by around 7 percent over the past decade.

"We have a demographic crisis in Ukraine as we are losing 300,000 people by natural causes every year," Vasyl Voskoboinyk, head of the Ukraine Government's Vision 2033 project, told CGTN Europe. His role is to prepare the country for a post-war future and its people are the main hope for - but also threat to - his plans.

As a result of the current fighting, 6.7 million Ukrainians now live outside the country. One in four are women and more than a third are children under 18 years of age. According to Ukraine's Center for Economic Strategy between 860,000 and 2.7 million of those may never return home.

They're more likely to be educated Ukrainians, students and mothers and their children - some may be expecting male family members to join them once movement restrictions are lifted when the conflict ends.

Lilia Muryii had elected to stay, but she's considering changing her mind. 

"If the situation will be worse in Ukraine, I will emigrate to Canada as I have a all necessary documents for this. And to compare my life level in Ukraine and Canada - my life here is better but not safe," she told CGTN.

The theme of safety is a primary reason for people to leave.

"The war has a negative impact. Prices are up, salaries don't increase and it becomes quite difficult to live. And then there's the fear during air raid sirens that a rocket or a missile could fly past," said Viktoria Kasumova as she prepared to leave the country for Poland.

But even if that danger is removed, it may not be enough to pursuade Ukrainians to return to their battle ravaged country if they have found well-paid jobs and new lives abroad.

While the government is concerned now about stemming the flow of departures, future administrations may need to establish how to lure back expats to rebuild and revive their homeland.

Subscribe to Storyboard: A weekly newsletter bringing you the best of CGTN every Friday