East Germany's upcoming elections are a potential political earthquake

On Sunday September 1, all German eyes will be on the eastern states of Thuringia and Saxony and their elections for new state parliaments. Three weeks later, Brandenburg will also vote. These elections could be game-changers, with potential to redefine Germany's political landscape. 

A political landscape in flux

In Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony, voters will head to the polls to elect new state parliaments for the next five years. Currently, Brandenburg is governed by a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and the Greens. In Thuringia, a left-wing coalition of The Left Party, SPD, and the Greens is in power, while Saxony is ruled by a coalition of the CDU, SPD and the Greens. 

However, the political climate is changing - the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged in the polls, positioning itself as the strongest party in both Brandenburg and Thuringia and a close second in Saxony. 

The AfD, classified as a "right-wing extremist" group by state authorities, including the Offices for the Protection of the Constitution (Verfassungsschutz) in Thuringia and Saxony. Although many Germans see it as a threat to democratic stability, it continues to gain traction, particularly in the East.

Meanwhile, a new political force, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), is shaking up the political scene. Led by, and named after, the former Left Party politician Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW has rapidly gained support – particularly in Thuringia, but it's also making inroads in Saxony. 

The East-West divide: A lingering legacy 

More than three decades after reunification, many East Germans still feel economically and socially disadvantaged compared to their Western counterparts. Recent surveys suggest about 60 percent of East Germans believe living conditions are significantly better in the West. 

This enduring disparity has been noted as one of the main sources of support for parties like the AfD and BSW, which promise to prioritize the interests of East Germans who feel neglected and excluded by mainstream politicians.

The East's sense of alienation is further reflected in its foreign policy outlook, particularly regarding the ongoing Ukraine conflict. While much of Western Germany supports a strong military response against Russia, East Germans are markedly more skeptical. Polls reveal that only 35 percent of East Germans support a military response in the Ukraine conflict, compared to 53 percent in the West. Instead, nearly half of East Germans favor political concessions over confrontation.

Both the BSW and the AfD have successfully tapped into these sentiments. They have criticized Germany's involvement in the Ukraine conflict - a stance that resonates with the legacy of the East's history within the Soviet sphere of influence during the Cold War. 

BSW leader Wagenknecht, in particular, positioned her party as a defender of German sovereignty against perceived foreign interference. Her opposition to U.S. long-range missile deployments in Germany has struck a chord with voters who are wary of the country's alignment with NATO and its increasingly confrontational stance toward Russia.

The rise of BSW: A new force in German politics

Among the most intriguing developments in these elections is the emergence of the BSW. This new political alliance, led by the charismatic and controversial Wagenknecht, has quickly gained traction in East Germany. In Thuringia, BSW is polling strongly, competing with the long-established CDU for second place behind the AfD. 

Once a leading figure in the Left Party, Wagenknecht broke away to form BSW, seeking to carve out a new space in German politics. BSW's platform is an unusual blend of left-wing economic policies and conservative cultural values, designed to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters who feel alienated by the traditional parties. 

BSW addresses issues that are close to the hearts of many East Germans - Wagenknecht has positioned her party as a defender of social justice, advocating for more equitable economic policies. However, she has also tapped into concerns more typically associated with conservative politics, such as immigration and national sovereignty. 

BSW's opposition to the stationing of U.S. military weapons in Germany places her party in direct opposition to Germany's mainstream parties, including the CDU and SPD, which support these military arrangements.

Wagenknecht's rhetoric often challenges the political establishment, and her ability to draw support from both left-wing and right-wing voters highlights the deep divisions within German society. Her rise signals a significant realignment in German politics, particularly in the East, where traditional party loyalties are rapidly eroding.

The stakes: A potential political earthquake

The potential outcomes of these elections could lead to a political earthquake in Germany. If the AfD emerges as the strongest party in Thuringia and Brandenburg, and possibly in Saxony, it would mark a historic shift in German politics. 

The AfD's rise poses a challenge to the country's democratic fabric, as all major parties have pledged to keep the far-right party out of government - a promise that could prove difficult to keep if the AfD dominates the vote.

In Thuringia and Saxony, the CDU may have no choice but to consider forming a coalition with BSW, a prospect that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Such an alliance would be ideologically and politically challenging, given the stark differences between the CDU's centrist, pro-business stance and Wagenknecht's populist, anti-establishment rhetoric. 

Yet, this might be the only viable option to prevent the AfD from gaining power, as all other traditional coalitions appear increasingly untenable.

The SPD, once a powerhouse in German politics, is now teetering on the brink of irrelevance in these eastern states. Polls suggest the party could struggle to even meet the five percent threshold required for representation in the state parliaments. 

This collapse would be a significant blow to SPD leader - and German Chancellor - Olaf Scholz, raising serious questions about his leadership and the SPD's future ahead of the national elections in 2025.

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