French elections: What happens next if nobody wins an absolute majority?

The second round of France's parliamentary elections is being held today, with the far-right National Rally (RN) expected to become the biggest party in the National Assembly for the first time in history. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron is on course to lose control of parliament, and could even be forced to appoint a far-right prime minister. 

But as with the surprise announcement of a snap election last month, nothing is ever certain in French politics. Even if RN win the most votes in the election, there's a strong chance they won't be able to form a stable government. So what's actually going to happen once the results are in, and how might France form a new government among the continuing rise of the far right? 

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When will we know the result and what are the odds?

Voting began in mainland France at 08:00 (06:00 GMT), with exit polls to be released 12 hours later. The French parliament has 577 seats, and initial projections suggest Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) could challenge for an outright majority of 289 seats. 

However, final opinion polls on Friday suggest this is unlikely, with RN possibly securing between 205 and 210 seats. The leftist New Popular Front is expected to get up to 168 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble alliance is projected around 144 seats, hinting at a possible parliamentary deadlock.

In terms of how seriously the French are taking the election, voter turnout hit its highest in four decades during the first round of voting on July 1, with 59.39 percent of the country voting, the highest since France's 1986 legislative vote.

When might France get a new government?

Despite the likely event of Macron's Ensemble coalition not securing an absolute majority, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's immediate resignation isn't required. There's also no formal timetable for the president to ask the current government to resign.

However, if the government gets outvoted in the National Assembly it will likely force a motion of no confidence, which could happen during the first session of the new parliament. That date under the French Constitution is set as the second Thursday after the election, in this case July 18, which may become a key date for government formation.

How will a new government be formed?

If any political party secures an absolute majority (289 of 577 seats), the president essentially must appoint a prime minister from that party. Here, such a majority could only be achieved by RN and its backers, or from the left New Popular Front.

In the case of a cohabitation scenario, where the president and the prime minister hail from different parties, the president retains the authority to appoint the prime minister. However, he must align with the majority opinion in the Assembly to avoid the risk of a no-confidence motion. Consequently, he essentially has to select a prime minister from the biggest party in parliament. 

In this situation, Macron could be forced to elect RN leader and far-right firebrand Jordan Bardella as his prime minister. However, the 28-year-old has already said he would refuse to serve in the role under the current president, but RN's Le Pen has opened the door to courting other lawmakers if it is only lacking a small number of seats.

What happens if there is no parliamentary majority?

If there is no single majority, forming a government and getting legislation through becomes increasingly difficult. In 2022, Macron's coalition was the largest bloc in the Assembly but lacked an outright majority, leading to a government that required support from opposing parties to pass legislation. If RN becomes the largest parliamentary group but doesn't reach an absolute majority, it may face a "Republican front" of opposing parties that stops it from passing laws. 

What happens if no sustainable government emerges?

Without a clear majority or a coalition government, France risks long term institutional deadlock, especially due to the political chasm between the three main parties. In order to pass basic legislation, one solution could be a government of national unity, where a coalition is made up of all the main political parties. This method of governance is usually invoked during national emergencies though.

Then there's the option of a technical government, similar to Mario Draghi's in Italy in 2021, where non-partisan ministers manage the country. Another could be a minority government, where politicians look for legislative support on a case-by-case basis. However, any of these arrangements would be fragile, constantly under the threat of a no-confidence vote, potentially leading to frequent government changes.

Prime Minister Attal has said the mainstream right, left and centrist parties could form ad hoc alliances to vote through individual pieces of legislation in the new parliament, rather than try to put together a coalition government. On the left, however, some have touted the idea of forming a ruling coalition. Unlike Germany and many other European countries, France has never had a broad coalition government in its modern political history.

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