To Hull and back: UK's Conservatives risk losing cherished 'Red Wall'

From the north of England across to Wales in the west of Britain, a whole swathe of formerly center-left parliamentary districts switched from the Labour Party to the center-right Conservative Party in the 2019 general election.

The so-called Red Wall of Labour was demolished and became blue under the leadership of Boris Johnson. In a matter of months his 80-seat majority in Westminster evaporated under the weight of Brexit, the Covid pandemic and claims of government mismanagement.

Almost five years on, many voters see the world and the economy differently. UK businesses are bracing for the policies a new Labour government - if elected - would implement.

Any change is likely to shift market dynamics, especially if new rules are introduced on planning and taxation.

In the city of Hull in the north of England, multi-billion-dollar businesses and smaller enterprises will have to navigate an uncertain period.

Adam Couch, chief executive of Cranswick Country Foods, said businesspeople asked two things of any government. 

"One is access to markets and one is access to staff," he said. "We can do the rest ourselves. We have very, very forthright business. We have a very precise business, and we're a very demanding and future-looking business as well."

Food is  good business. According to official UK data, it's a sector that keeps on growing. The gross value of Britain's agri-food industry in 2022 was $186 billion.

Cranswick Country Foods employs 14,000 staff in its 23 sites. Its 'farm-to-fork' slogan has helped it capture a third of the UK's pork market. The company exports to more than 25 countries worldwide and its annual turnover is $3.3 billion.

"We want to invest heavily in the future, but we need planning in order to be able to achieve that," explained Couch. "Those are the areas that we would like to have support on, and an interest in the expansion and promoting our products internationally, as well as at the local level." 

All predictions point to a Labour government after the July 4 election but there may be a myriad of problems facing its leader Keir Starmer. He wants to see more growth in the economy but will need to navigate new policies, taxation and rules carefully, especially after the last eight years and three major shocks to the UK economy.

They are, of course, the Brexit vote and leaving the European Union, followed by the costs of the Covid-19 pandemic and the continuing conflict in eastern Europe and violence in the Middle East.

Katerina Moore moved to a renovated shop in Hull's Paragon Arcade 18 months ago to open Artisan Flowers. But as the city center struggles to recover from the impact of lockdowns combined with people buying goods online, Moore's biggest problem is the increasing cost of importing flowers from the Netherlands. New custom checks and tariffs lead to delay, with costs being passed on by wholesalers.

She told CGTN: "The annoying thing is when you can have to have all these checks (when) before you could get a delivery within 24 hours. Now we've got to have a delivery within 48 hours. So if you are on a Monday you can't get it till the Wednesday, whereas before Brexit and before all the different changes, we could get it in within 24 hours." 

There is also the rising cost of living that has crippled tens of thousands of families in the UK, forcing many to depend on support and public services. It's the same story in Hull.

We spoke to several men in Hull who were either unemployed, not able to work or retired, and asked whether they thought a new government would raise taxes and expect people to pay more.

"By paying more taxes, obviously we are going to have less money for bills, for food, for survival...so I don't think that would be a very good idea," said one.

Another opined: "What difference is it going to make to me? Nothing. I do not gain anything from voting, no matter whether it's Labour or Conservative."

One man said he supported a change in government, saying: "I think when people are too concerned about what taxes their pay, they've got to look at the bigger picture and trust the government."

There has been much talk of apathy among the young but we came across a septuagenarian who said he had never voted in his life. "The reason I haven't voted in 75 years, which I will be in August, is because I'm fed up of listening to the false promises."

Ruth is a working woman, and said that despite being usually a positive person, "I do genuinely feel we've had enough. We've had enough of being told one thing and not doing it or being told to do something, and then somebody else is doing something completely different. I think there's a lot of mistrust, not just locally, not just the government, but also in opposition as well."

Within sight of Hull's waterfront, the two-kilometer-long Humber Bridge is a gateway between the south and north east of England. On the brown waters of the estuary, the port of Hull is connected via ferries to Rotterdam. 

More investments will be expected from the new government to stimulate growth, but the unknown factor for many voters is whether higher taxes will also have to be paid to fund it.

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