Türkiye holds local elections as Erdogan seeks to take back Istanbul

Voting will begin on Sunday May 31, with the ruling AKP seeking to win back control of Istanbul and other key cities, lost to the opposition Republicans in 2019. 

Neck and neck 

In the first real test of its power since victory in last May's presidential election, Türkiye's ruling Adalet Ve Kalkinma (Justice and Development Party) is facing the electorate in local and municipal polls. Analysts say the outcome could give an indication of what is ahead in the next presidential race, to be held in four years' time. In Istanbul, the country's economic and business hub, opinion polls are running neck and neck between the two main candidates. 

The city's popular mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu from the secular Republican People's Party (CHP) is facing down a challenge from the AKP's former environment minister, Murat Kurum. Imamoglu himself won control of the city of 16 million people, after a contested election five years ago, in which the AKP challenged the first round result and demanded a rerun.

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Imamoglu is the favorite candidate to lead the republicans into the next presidential poll in 2028. "If he wins (on Sunday) it looks like he is going to be the main candidate," Umut Korkut a professor at Glasgow Caledonian University told CGTN.

Earthquake Risk 

With inflation rising to 67 percent last month, the economy and cost of living is chief among voter concerns. But Korkut says another issue has taken on renewed significance since last year.  

"Istanbul is expecting an earthquake, although we don't know when", he said. "So whoever can show they can prepare the city the best, will win." 

In addition to strengthening existing housing stock, Imamoglu has made sustainable public transport a priority.  Work is underway on an extension to Istanbul's metro and tram system. Meanwhile, the AKP's Kurum, a former executive on the state housing agency TOKI, has made urban development his key pledge to voters.

WATCH: Interview with Umut Korkut from Glasgow university

Final outcome

However, a new political party is threatening to split the religious, conservative vote that makes up the bedrock of the AKP's support. The New Welfare Party headed by Fatih Erbakan, son of late Islamist prime minister Necmettin Erbakan, is also fielding a candidate in Istanbul. It is promising to double the lowest state pension and end trade with Israel if it wins. 

Elsewhere however, Korkut says, as in 2019, it could be the support of the Kurdish vote that decides the final Istanbul result.

"It can also decide the outcome in Ankara and other towns" he said. "This time though the Kurdish party (DEM) is fielding its own candidate, a female candidate in fact… (but) Imamoglu has been rather balancing, and sometimes veering away from his own .. Republican People's Party, in order to appeal to Kurdish voters."

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