Portugal swerves to the right in snap elections

The center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged victorious in Sunday's (March 10) Portuguese elections with almost 30 percent of the vote, narrowly defeating the incumbent Socialist Party (PS) on 28.7 percent.

While final numbers are still pending - a small number of votes arriving from abroad - this will most likely be very close to the final result.

"The Portuguese people have spoken," AD leader Luis Montenegro said in a somewhat tempered victory speech. "They said they want a change in government, they said they want a change in policies and the Portuguese also made it clear they want the big parties to be able to reinvent themselves and show the capacity to innovate."

But while the AD - an alliance of the center-right Social Democrats (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties - claimed the most votes in this election, it fell short of an outright majority.

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It was a historic night for the far-right Chega party. Campaigning on a platform promising clean governance and curbs on immigration, it more than doubled its 2022 election results to around 18 percent - and quadrupled its parliamentary representation to 48 MPs.

Chega now holds the balance of power, its party leader Andre Ventura proclaiming "Portugal's era of bipartisanship is over," and that Chega is "ready to help form a government."

The problem for Montenegro is that he promised not to go into a government with Chega - both on the campaign trail and again on Sunday night - calling Ventura's ideas and policies "xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic" during his campaign.

Now with Ventura reveling in his new role as kingmaker, talks will begin and Montenegro could potentially bow to party pressure and accept the active or possibly passive support of Chega.

Then again, after the vertiginous climb that the far-right has enjoyed, emerging as Portugal's third electoral force, a passive role in a government may not be enough for them.

Should Chega participate in any way, it would be the first time the far right has helped decide a Portuguese election in 50 years since the Carnation Revolution in 1974.

It was a bad night for the incumbent Socialist Party, a culmination of a bad couple of years after a corruption scandal cut short a chaotic term just two years old. Former Prime Minister Antonio Costa won an outright majority in 2022 but in November 2023 was ousted by allegations of corruption.

Costa stepped down after dramatic police raids on his residence and the arrest of five people including his chief of staff, part of an investigation into influence-peddling around large infrastructure green deals.

Those investigations are ongoing and Costa insists on his innocence but stepped aside, saying that the office of Prime Minister should be above suspicion.

His replacement Pedro Nuno Santos failed to convince the electorate, leaving his party no chance of governing, even with the support of smaller more radical leftist parties like the Communist Party.

"The Socialist party will be the opposition party," Santos said on Sunday night, admitting defeat. 

"We will be the party of the opposition, we will rejuvenate the party and try to bring back those that are unhappy."

Does Portugal have a government?

No. Not yet, at least.

This is a historic moment for Portuguese politics, an end to the alternating center-left/center-right power dynamic that has dominated for decades.

The arrival of political disruptor Chega has ended the two-party system - for now at least - leaving Portuguese politics in uncharted waters.

One way a government could be formed is if Montenegro goes back on his word and relies on Chega's active or passive support.

The other option is the Socialists allowing the AD to govern in minority by abstaining in an investiture vote, thus avoiding having a far-right party in power.

Whether its party members could stomach such a thing remains to be seen, Santos said in his speech accepting defeat, adding that the AD's plans for government on the table were not acceptable in their current form.

Portugal's political tectonic plates have shifted and it's a completely new landscape. The only certainty now is that the old ways are over and new solutions will have to be found.

If Portugal is to get a government then it's going to take weeks, potentially months, after an election that has left the country facing more questions than answers.

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