Decision time for Portugal with third election in five years

Portugal is heading to the polls for the third time in five years. 

The government called a snap election after former prime minister Antonio Costa was caught up in a corruption scandal. Costa insists he's innocent, but will not stand in the elections. Voters will decide if his Socialist Party (PS) should remain in power. 

Costa steps down

Police arrested five people during a series of raids on the prime minister's residence in November. Investigators are now probing claims that officials acted illegally when the government negotiated deals for green infrastructure. 

Costa stepped aside, saying any kind of probe was "incompatible with the dignity of the office." He had governed Portugal since 2015 and was re-elected in 2022 with an absolute majority.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Souza then stepped in, calling fresh general elections on March 10.

Who's running in Portugal's elections?

Both the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) and centre-right Social Democrat Party (PSD) are facing corruption scandals ahead of these polls. Analysts say that could present an opportunity for Portugal's far-right.

The Chega ('Enough') party has styled itself as an alternative to the traditional big two.

Leader Andre Ventura is a former trainee priest who made his name as a football commentator. He claims Portugal needs 'cleaning out', and his slick social media campaigns have generated lots of buzz.

"We have no other option but to win the elections. There is no other option," said Ventura during a campaign event. "They've given us no choice. The Socialist Party and the AD (centre-right Democratic Alliance) represent exactly the same thing, and only a strong vote for Chega will enable us to put an end to Portugal's two-party culture."

The PS and PSD have both said they won't govern alongside Chega. PSD leader, Luís Montenegro, says Ventura's far-right views and policies are "often xenophobic, racist, populist and demagogic."

Montenegro also leads a group of right-leaning parties called the Democratic Alliance. He has said he will not try to form a minority government, but may be open to some kind of alliance with Chega if the party offers unconditional support.

Costa's successor as head of PS is Pedro Nuno Santos. He's warned that a vote for conservatives could allow the far-right into the halls of power.

Far-right groups will break the mould if they end up as 'kingmakers' after the election. The last time they played any role in choosing a government was 1974. 

What are the most important issues?

Corruption has been a big talking point in the lead-up to the poll. But there are other issues on the minds of Portuguese voters - high inflation and low wages, along with persistent problems in the housing, health and education systems. 

The crisis in the public health system was front and center last week. The FNAM doctors union said there was no shortage of doctors in Portugal, but there was a shortage in the country's National Health Service. The union says 1.7 million people still don't have a family doctor and hospital appointments are often delayed.

The unemployment rate is now around seven percent, but the real problem is the quality of employment. Low wages make it difficult to build wealth and many people - particularly young adults - struggle to buy a home.

Portugal's gross domestic product was around $300 billion in 2023. That puts it 20th in the European Union. The minimum wage is around $1,000 per month, placing it outside the top ten among EU countries.

Portugal's election polling

Chega could emerge as a power broker if voters reject the two leading parties, which have dominated Portuguese politics for decades.

A poll conducted on March 6 shows the center-right PSD at 35 percent, the ruling PS at 28 percent, and Chega at 15 percent.

That's a considerable rise from the 1.3 percent that Chega notched up in the 2019 elections.

The right-leaning parties say they're confident of a win, but victory is not guaranteed. Some polls suggest 20 percent of people only plan to make their final decision at the ballot box.

Most polls point to a fragmented election result where no one party secures a majority. That could mean the center-right will govern with the active, or passive, support of Chega. 

The socialists could also get enough support from smaller left-leaning parties to form a minority government. That arrangement could raise the risk of political instability and perhaps yet another election. 

Either way, Portuguese voters want solutions to their problems. Sunday's election offers a chance to express their concerns and frustrations. They will be hoping they won't have to repeat themselves again and again. 

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