Ukraine, Gaza and the U.S. election will lead Munich Security Conference talks

The 60th Munich Security Conference kicks off on Friday amid a turbulent period of geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty that could escalate further in 2024.

The aim of the conference is to assess and seek solutions to ongoing conflicts and potential security issues, in the hope of promoting peace through dialogue. This year, the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts are likely to dominate the agenda.

Possible U-Turn in U.S. policy towards Ukraine

There is also another pressing issue on the horizon. This year's U.S. presidential election could see Donald Trump re-elected as president and a reversal in the country's approach to current international crises.

"There could be a U-turn in the foreign policy of the U.S. towards Ukraine," says Sascha Ruppert-Karakas, a PhD and Research Associate in Political Theory at Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich. 

Such a move could see Ukraine's biggest military supporter pull back their financial aid, potential exposing Europe to expanded Russian aggression.

European security

"The European states and the NATO block should really think about their own security in terms of becoming more independent from the U.S," says Ruppert-Karakas.

This idea was further emphasized following Donald Trump's threat, just days before the start of the conference, that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO members who "do not pay their bills;" a comment labelled as "irresponsible and dangerous" by German chancellor Olaf Scholz.

"Internal developments inside Europe should also be a security priority," adds Ruppert-Karakas. "Since a lot of right wing populist parties are assuming governmental responsibilities in the European states, you have to think about what this democratic regression would do to the whole region.”

Other security issues

Discussions are also expected to cover lesser reported conflicts such as those unfolding in Sudan and Yemen. Emphasis will be placed on issues from the global south, with an increase in the number of participants from Latin America and South East Asia, and touch on other potential security issues, such as as migration, climate change and the impact of new technologies like generative AI.

Delegations from around the world

Attendees will include the regular participants such as the German Chancellor, French President, a high-level delegation from the U.S. and heads of the UN and NATO. Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are also expected to attend.

Delegations from Russia and Iran were not invited. As in previous years, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, will present China's stance on these major international security issues.

'Davos for defense'

The conference has been dubbed the 'Davos for defense,' a reference to the World Economic Forum's annual event in Switzerland that draw the major business leaders and politicians together. There is hope that the unique informal environment in which talks will be held will help to secure diplomatic progress.

"It's very important to have this communication style with other states and to build alliances," says Ruppert-Karakas. "I think achievement is step by step. Its network building that is happening and that is very important."

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