As Türkiye marks the first anniversary of one of its most deadly earthquakes in modern times, hundreds of thousands remain homeless. Meanwhile, fears are growing over the risk of similar disasters in the future.

"No way of escaping”

In February, almost exactly a year after Türkiye's deadly quakes left over 53,000 people dead, Istanbul office worker Cansu Erdogmus packed up her possessions. With her mother and young son, she left her home in Istanbul's Gaziosmanpasa district for a new life over 700 kilometers away, near the resort of Marmaris.

She explained her reasons to CGTN. "If an earthquake of the magnitude we experienced last year were to occur in Istanbul, I think none of us would have a chance ... With rent increases, the only homes we could afford would be basements. In Istanbul, with its narrow streets and endless multi-storey buildings side by side,we would have no way of escaping," she said.

While Istanbul, with sixteen million residents, remains Europe's most populous city, over two million people have left in the past five years according to official figures. Close to half a million quit in 2022 alone. Earthquake fears, along with that of rising rents, is the most commonly given reason.

"Heal the wounds”

The twin 7.8 magnitude quakes flattened towns and parts of cities across Türkiye's southeast last year, leaving an estimated 1.5 million homeless. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged to "heal the wounds .. within a year."

Türkiye's leader was in one of the worst affected regions, Hatay, at the weekend announcing the delivery of over 7,000 homes and promising 40,000 more. But the number is still far short of the two hundred thousand plus dwellings destroyed when the quake hit the city.

At an anniversary vigil for the dead this week, there was anger over what many say is the government's poor handling of the disaster. 

"Thousands of people died here in Hatay. Why did they forget about us?" asked resident Nurul Sabah Aksu.

Ali Tolga Ozden, associate professor of architecture at Canakkale Onsekiz University, told CGTN the situation in many areas remains desperate. "Finding a solid building in the central district of Hatay is like finding a needle in a haystack," he said.

Of the delay in new housing he added "there are many reasons behind this, rapidly rising construction costs, winter conditions, a lack of preparation before the disaster and limited financial resources. As a result .. housing need of this enormous amount cannot be met in the short term."

Container cities

While the AKP government targeted the completions of 319,000 homes a year in the wake of the disaster, official figures show that by January 46,000 completed units had been delivered. Türkiye's disaster relief agency AFAD says 700,000 people remain living in container homes and temporary accommodation. Save the Children says around one in three of all children made homeless by the quakes have yet to be rehoused.

Türkiye's ruling AK Party insists that, despite the cost of the quake exceeding $70 billion, its plan is to "build back better." Environment minister Mehmet Özhaseki has said of the new steel structured units being delivered "...even a 9.0-magnitude earthquake cannot wreck these homes."

But Ozden said the container developments may be in use for sometime to come. After the 1999 Marmaris earthquake, we know thousands of people who could not find a strong safe home lived in containers for three to four years. This increased the trauma on people, discontent rose and desperation pushed people to move to unsafe buildings."

"Disaster Resilient Istanbul”

Launching his project for a "Disaster Resilient Istanbul" this week, the city's mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from the main opposition People's Republican Party has warned "approximately ...1.3 million residences in Istanbul, will be severely damaged or become unusable in the event of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or more."

With crucial local elections due next month, in which President Erdogan's AK party is seeking to regain control of Istanbul, Imamoglu has complained of a lack of cooperation with the central government over disaster planning.

Ozden says "at the moment everyone is waiting for the elections to be over and for the realities to be faced. There is a saying in Turkish 'the village that sees doesn't need guides'. What increases people's pessimism over the earthquake expected in Istanbul is that promises made will not be kept."

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