They have opposing views on Israel's escalation with Hamas and conflicting attitudes to Moscow since the attack on Ukraine, but when Germany and Türkiye's leaders meet in Berlin they have powerful economic and electoral incentives to discuss. 

President Tayyip Erdogan's first visit to Germany since 2020 comes ahead of municipal elections at which he hopes to win back the cities of Ankara and Istanbul. The prospect of better access to the European Union market and visa liberalization would be a big gift to voters buffeted by high inflation and an economic crisis. 

As Erdogan was driven through a heavily locked-down Berlin on Friday, his demand that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz accede to Türkiye's request to buy 40 Eurofighter Typhoon warplanes will be high on the agenda. Germany, via Airbus, is a partner in the consortium that builds them. 

For Scholz, heading a fractious three-way coalition that is dealing with a court ruling that blew a $65 billion hole in his budget and rowing over the economy and rising immigration, Ankara's role in stemming migration to the EU makes it an indispensable partner. 

Central Berlin on lockdown

In a sign of the visit's importance, Scholz took pains not to respond directly to Erdogan's loud condemnation of Israel's conflict with Hamas, in which many thousands of Palestinians have been killed. 

On Wednesday, after Erdogan called Hamas – which killed some 1,200 people in its October 7 attacks on Israel – a "liberation organization," Scholz declined multiple invitations to criticize Erdogan, noting only in general terms that "the charges being brought against Israel are absurd."

The response was decidedly mild given the fierce condemnation that far more muted criticisms of Israel typically draw in Germany, traditionally one of Israel's closest allies. But Erdogan doubled down on Wednesday, labeling Israel a "terror state" with "unlimited support" from the West, suggesting it may be impossible to contain all the Gaza fall-out during his trip. Germany has expressed strong solidarity with Israel, while urging a focus on limiting the impact of the war on Gaza's civilians. 

Police have locked down large parts of central Berlin and banned all protests in the area. Initial planning for Erdogan's visit started in the summer, before the Gaza conflict started. 

The visit also comes a day after the Turkish parliament's foreign affairs commission delayed a vote on Sweden's NATO membership bid, putting off enlarging the Western alliance after an 18-month wait in which Ankara demanded terror-related concessions from Stockholm. 

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Erdogan, who recently described Germany to reporters as "Europe's most powerful country," may hope to win Scholz's backing to revive stalled talks on modernizing Türkiye's customs union with the EU – although major changes will not come until long after elections in March. 

Despite both sides' efforts, Gaza has already had an impact: Erdogan was originally due to stay another day, which would have allowed him and Scholz to take in Saturday's football friendly between the two countries. 

With some three million people in Germany having Turkish roots, such encounters are always fraught but now the risk was judged too great. "There was a fear there'd be anti-Israel chants," said Aydin Yasar, a Türkiye specialist at German thinktank SWP. "It's unlikely Scholz would want to watch it with him. At other times it would have been a nice gesture."

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