WATCH: Alex Cadier on the EU latest from Brussels

Who's on the waiting list to join the European Union, what's the history of the bloc – and who are the winners and losers from Wednesday's announcements from the European Commission?

The EU's executive on Wednesday recommended opening formal membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Ukraine launched its bid to become part of the EU right after the start of its conflict with Russia in February 2022, and was officially named a candidate to join in June of the same year.

"Today is a historic day," European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said. " Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the move as the "right step" for Europe. 

It could still take years and decades for Kyiv to be welcomed into the EU because of the painstaking process of reforms needed. While there was disappointment for Serbia who was told they had work to do, there was joy for Georgia who got their candidate status recommended.

The verdicts, in the European Commission's annual reports on candidate countries' progress towards EU norms, will now go to the bloc's 27 leaders at a summit in December to decide to start talks or not.

The long road to membership continues. 

Colorful history of EU

Over the last 50 years, the EU has gone through several waves of expansion. Founded in 1957, the European Economic Community (later renamed the EU) started out with six members – Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany.

In 1973, Britain, Denmark and Ireland joined, followed by Greece, Portugal and Spain in the 1980s. In 1995, the bloc began expanding eastwards, admitting Austria, Finland and Sweden in a leap that gave it a shared border with Russia for the first time.

In 2004 came the "big bang" enlargement from 15 to 25 members, with eight Eastern European countries and two Mediterranean nations raising EU flags in one swoop. In 2007, Bulgaria and Romania took the EU to 27 members and in 2013 Croatia became the 28th.

Britain became in 2020 the first member state to leave the EU, after a seismic 2016 referendum vote to quit the bloc, taking its members back down to 27.

Waiting list 

The conflict in Ukraine has reignited the EU's drive to expand into Central and Eastern Europe. In December 2022, Bosnia became the fifth Balkan nation to be given candidate status, following North Macedonia (2005), Montenegro (2010), Serbia (2012) and Albania (2014). Kosovo in 2022 also applied but has yet to be given candidate status.

NATO member Türkiye has been a candidate since 1999 and launched membership talks in 2005. But Ankara's relations with the EU have deteriorated sharply since 2016 due in part to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's crackdown on dissent in the wake of a failed coup.

For many EU member states, the long-stalled accession talks are dead in all but name. In September, Austria – long opposed to Türkiye's membership – even called for the process to end.

Ukraine, whose European ambitions have fueled two revolutions since 2004, and Moldova brought to eight the number of countries in the EU's waiting room. The two former Soviet republics were among six countries with which the EU formed an Eastern Partnership in 2009, trading closer economic and political ties for reforms. 

The others were Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia's ally Belarus, which later opted out. Georgia also gained the recommendation for EU candidate status it has been pressing for. 

Negotiation table

Gaining full membership is a complex process which usually takes several years, as aspirants have to take on board the vast body of EU law. While Finland was admitted in fewer than four years, it took the three ex-Soviet Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania nine.

The commission in June last year set Ukraine seven reform benchmarks to complete, including tackling graft and curbing oligarch power, before talks should start. Von der Leyen said Kyiv had now completed "well over 90 percent of the necessary steps." But even diplomats from EU capitals strongly backing Zelenskyy and his country admit the debate in December will be tough – and approval to start talks will likely be conditional on further reforms.

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Allowing in a shattered nation of more than 40 million people would spell a major shift – and huge costs – for the bloc and will turn some countries currently receiving EU funds into net contributors. 

Wrapped up with Ukraine's membership push, and those of the other hopefuls, is a far more fundamental debate on how to make the EU manageable if it reaches 30 members or more. Countries such as the Netherlands insist there can be no shortcuts on the road to membership. Hungary accuses Kyiv of curbing the rights of ethnic Hungarians.

Ukraine and many others may just have to be patient.

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