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2023.10.25 01:19 GMT+8

'Very dangerous, very volatile' Gaza conflict could spread throughout Middle East

Updated 2023.10.25 01:19 GMT+8
Matthew Nash

The escalation in Gaza could spread throughout the Middle East due to the "very dangerous, very volatile" nature of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, according to an expert from a London-based independent policy institute.

The two sides have been engaged in conflict for the past fortnight, with the Hamas-run health ministry saying more than 700 Palestinians were killed by Israeli air strikes in the Gaza Strip in the preceding 24 hours.

There are fears the conflict could spread to engulf more of the region and Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow on the MENA Programme at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, fears further escalation involving militant group Hezbollah.

"We need to understand that any military operation of these sorts, even if it's limited, will actually end with more casualties on both sides, but also of many civilians," said Mekelberg. "We've already seen it over the last two weeks and the count of Palestinians killed is more probably around 5,000."

He added: "Any further operations will increase that; this will agitate the region in many countries. This has to be taken into account and can have a destabilizing impact on the region. Hezbollah, under the influence of Iran, might decide to join in from Lebanon, maybe from Syria, and then we are entering into a new dynamic in the region. We are in a very dangerous, very volatile stage of this conflict."

The site of an Israeli strike on a house in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip. /Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters

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Mekelberg feels it the pressures from outside the Middle East could play a part in what happens next in the Gaza conflict. He believes it is not just interests from the opposing sides which form part of the thinking on whether there will be a ground invasion from Israel.

"I believe the likelihood of a ground offensive is high, (but) at the same time probably different to what we would have thought about it had it taken place two weeks ago. It might be more surgical than we expected," Mekelberg added.

"There is also no doubt the anger in the first few days (of the escalation), the call for revenge was so strong, that it was bound to affect those who make decisions. Two weeks later, there is more understanding, more pressures from other actors, in the region and outside the region - the United States and Europe. They (Israel) need to think about any military operation but also political objectives, not just punishing Hamas."

For Mekelberg, the chances of an Israeli ground offensive remain high but he believes Hamas are playing for time given they have taken so many hostages. One released on Tuesday, 85-year-old Yocheved Lifshitz, stated that she "went through hell" after being captured and taken to Gaza by Hamas militants in the October 7 attack.

Mekelberg said: "On the one hand, everyone expects an Israeli military incursion but at the same time we see some moves to release hostages and maybe this is part of Hamas's delaying tactics.

"The more there is expectation for hostages to be released, the more there is a chance of a delay and then they can regroup and put pressure on Israel to not even conduct a military incursion and ground offensive. Bear in mind there are around 220 hostages, two released every day, and at this rate it will take three months or more to release all of them."

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