The results from Poland's election are now fully in, and they suggest a sea change in Polish politics - with one expert telling CGTN "the international scene is going to change dramatically" as a result.

"Law and Justice has ruled single-handedly with a majority of votes from 2015 until now," explained Piotr Kacynski, a political analyst at the Bronislaw Geremek Foundation. Although the previously ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party polled higher than any rival with 35.38 percent of the vote, it only won 194 seats – way short of the 231 required for a parliamentary majority. 

Moreover, the nationalist, socially conservative PiS has been opposed by a bloc of the next three most popular parties – the liberal Civic Coalition, which won 30.7 percent of votes and 157 seats, the center-right Third Way (14.4 percent, 65 seats) and New Left (8.61 percent, 26 seats) – who have already said they intend to form a grand coalition to keep PiS out of power. 

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, said before the election that the winning party would get the first chance to form a new government. However, if the opposition coalition holds, the only possible coalition ally for PiS is the far-right Confederation, which only won 18 seats – leaving the potential partners still 19 short of a majority. No other party won any seats.

Although the change of government may take a while to confirm, Kacynski told CGTN a new government – expected to be led by Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk, a former European Council president – will make a marked difference in Poland's global outlook. 

"There will be a huge change," he said. "The international scene is going to change dramatically because this populist right-wing party that has been ruling Poland over the last eight years has basically had problems with pretty much everybody – with the EU, with Ukraine, with Russia, with the United States, with China, with Israel, with everybody. 

"The new government will be pro-European, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian at the same time. So this is going to be a much more reliable partner for pretty much everybody."

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If, as expected, PiS moves into opposition, Kacynksi forecasts a period of reappraisal before renewed campaigning in forthcoming elections. 

"They're going to move into opposition and they are going to fight for survival, because there is huge fighting inside Law and Justice, so we will see what's going on between those different camps," he said.

"They will probably want to win the next elections because in six months we have regional elections and then European elections in June next year. And then the biggest prize will be presidential elections in 2025."

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