Slovaks are heading to the polls for a parliamentary election this Saturday that has highlighted deep divisions in the Central European nation and will decide whether the country retains its pro-Western policies or aligns itself more closely with Russia amid the Ukraine crisis. 

Here's what you need to know about the run-up to the crucial vote, its frontrunners, the issues, and the most likely outcome.

Why is there an election taking place?

Saturday's snap election was called at the start of this year, with lawmakers actually changing the constitution to make the early poll possible. That's after a wobbly four-party center-right coalition collapsed in 2022 amid disagreements following a chaotic response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis. 

A caretaker government - appointed by liberal President Zuzana Caputova - took over instead, which was supposed to settle political turmoil until 2024. That, however, failed to materialize. And despite three different governments in as many years trying to bring stability, Slovakia's political tensions have now reached fever-pitch. 

In fact, the campaign has featured several physical brawls, death threats, political opponents accusing each other of being 'American agents.'

President Caputova has condemned the "anger, even hatred" that's marked the run up to the vote - she herself has repeatedly been accused of being a U.S. puppet. "As a human, I can understand that many people are frustrated and worried. But some people will opt for a radical, quick, populist, even extremist solution," she said. So then what are the solutions on offer to beat the country's political deadlock?

Who are people voting for?

There has been a tight battle between the populist Smer-SD party of former prime minister Robert Fico, who is calling to cut military aid to Ukraine while advocating for more Moscow-friendly policies, and the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) of Michal Simecka, a deputy speaker of the European Parliament who wants to deepen cooperation with the EU.

Fico, a veteran politician whose mix of nationalism, social conservatism, and anti-immigration views and promises of big spending has won him two previous long stints in power. He was forced to resign in 2018 after protests against corruption following the murder of an investigative journalist. Since then, he has taken on more pro-Russian views and could form an alliance with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, an outlier on Ukraine and a thorn in the EU's side.

In contrast, Fico's main rival party, Progressive Slovakia, is a relatively new centrist liberal movement who have run a strongly pro-Western, pro-EU campaign, while pledging to continue to help Ukraine. Their central promise for Slovakia's voters has been "a dignified future" and a continuation of the country's current policies.

The third-largest party is the moderate-left Voice of Peter Pellegrini, a former member of Smer-SD and prime minister between 2018 and 2020. His party emerged as a spin-off from Smer after Fico stepped down in 2018.

The other parties likely to enter parliament include the OLaNO movement of Igor Matovic, which won the last election in 2020 with an anti-corruption programme. He formed a coalition with the right-wing We Are Family, the liberal Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) and the centrist For the People. All of them are likely to remain in parliament, according to polls.

The Issues

With a longstanding pro-Russian sentiment in Slovakia, the Ukraine conflict is perhaps the key issue in this vote. Fico is breaking with his rivals and the majority of the EU by pledging to stop sending Slovak weapons to Kyiv - which have so far included MiG-29 fighter jets and an S-300 air defense system - vowing instead to provide only humanitarian aid. He is also opposed to shipments of military aid through Slovakia, which has rail and road links with Ukraine.

He has also repeatedly criticized sanctions against Russia - which PS support - as ineffective and harmful to the European economy. Fico says relations with Moscow should be restored after the conflict and has described Ukraine's EU entry as a far-off prospect. In contrast, PS has said it would support opening EU entry talks with Ukraine this year.

The former prime minister is also calling for more cooperation within the Visegrad Group of neighboring countries on policies including resistance to accepting migrants. The V4 includes Poland and Hungary, which have often been at odds with Western EU partners, and to whom Slovakia may drift closer under Fico. PS is offering stronger safeguards for minorities.

Corruption remains a key issue for many Slovak voters following widespread anti-graft protests and a protracted campaign to weed out government corruption, in which Fico himself faced charges that were later dropped. He was accused of using information from police and tax authorities to discredit political rivals, and has consequently railed against the investigation and the head of the office overseeing it. Here, the EU will be keeping a close eye, as it has already withheld European subsidies to member states deemed to be infringing the rule of law.

More generally, there is the issue of support for a pro-U.S. liberal democracy - half the country sees the U.S. as posing a security threat to their country - vs. those who want to end political indecision and have a strong and decisive leader that doesn't depend on parliamentary procedure. Slovakia only joined the EU and NATO in 2004, with many in the country unconvinced by the country's pull westwards. 

Who's likely to win?

The last pre-election polls, carried out on Wednesday, were split, with both Smer-SD and PS getting around 20 percent. "It's going to be tight," said independent analyst Grigorij Meseznikov. "The differences are negligible as Progressive Slovakia is drawing level with Smer-SD."

Either way, both Smer-SD and PS will have to rely on coalition partners following the vote as polls suggest neither will be able to form a government on its own. Hlas-SD is expected to be the kingmaker, with Pellegrini suggesting he was closer to Fico than to the liberals. Fico might also want to lure extremist far-right parties Republic and the Slovak National Party, while PS' Simecka is likely to address the centrists and right-wingers.

Polling stations will open at 0500 GMT and close at 2000 GMT on Saturday, with exit polls expected soon after and final results due Sunday morning.

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