France's decision to pull its soldiers out of Niger following a July coup in the West African country was inevitable. That's the view of eminent African historian Nick Westcott who believes security will continue to worsen in the region and be a "disaster" for the international community. 

On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris would withdraw 1,500 troops by the end of the year. France, the former colonial power in Niger, has long held a military presence there but Macron said he refused to "be held hostage by the putchists."

The French president has refused to recognize the coup leaders as Niger's legitimate authority since they ousted democratically elected President Mohammed Bazoum, currently held prisoner. Macron said he still regarded Bazoum as Niger's legitimate leader and had informed him of his decision.

Westcott, Director of the Royal African Society from 2017-2023, told CGTN: "Having not succeeded in restoring power, the French withdrawal became effectively inevitable, given that…the junta had to prove its point that it was in control and France was not willing to concede that it would recognize the coup."

Westcott believes the coup leaders have changed tactics amid their surprise at the "speed and determination" of ECOWAS, the African Union and the wider international community in rejecting the coup.

According to Westcott: "This frightened them and therefore they have been pushed more into a corner to justify their actions and seek some form of international support for it. The only legitimacy they can find is to take an anti-French, anti-imperialist line saying that Bazoum's government was not legitimate even though it had been elected by people, because it was 'a puppet of the French' and therefore they are saving the nation from foreign interference."

By "doubling down on the line that they are defending the nation against outside forces" Westcott said the coup leaders have chosen to ally themselves closely with similar regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso.

He added: "That is not a good situation for the international community, except those who are interested in promoting an unstable Africa, with more disorder."

France's exit, following weeks of pressure from coup leaders and popular street demonstrations, is likely to exacerbate Western concerns over Russia's expanding influence in Africa. The Russian mercenary force Wagner is already present in Niger's neighbor Mali.

Pro-coup demonstrators in Niamey have waved Russian flags, adding to Western countries' fears that Niger could follow Mali's lead and replace their troops with Wagner fighters.

Wagner is also active in the Central African Republic and Libya. Western nations say it's also present in Sudan, though it denies this. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for a return to constitutional order in Niger.

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"There will be greater instability in the Sahel," according to Westcott, who has also served as British High Commissioner to Ghana and Ambassador to Niger, Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Togo. "This is a disaster, having a whole region from Mali through Burkina Faso, Niger, into Sudan and on to Ethiopia, that is deeply unstable, where development efforts are at a full stop and people are beginning to flee the region because it's not safe to remain."

French influence over its former colonies has waned in West Africa in recent years, just as popular vitriol has grown. Its forces have been kicked out of neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso since coups in those countries, reducing its role in a region-wide fight against deadly Islamist insurgencies.

Until the coup, Niger had remained a key security partner of France and the United States, which have used it as a base to fight an Islamist insurgency in West and Central Africa's wider Sahel region.

France's military base in Niger's capital, Niamey, had become the epicenter of anti-French protests since the July 26 coup. 

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