‌The debate over if, and how the European Union should expand appears to have started in earnest among member states and EU representatives.‌ Speculation over the union's eastward expansion has been rife, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen setting the tone in her State of the Union speech to Parliament in September 2022.

‌"I want the people of the Western Balkans, of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to know.....you are part of our family," she said. "Your future is in our Union, and our Union is not complete without you." 

These were Von der Leyen's words in her annual speech, to rapturous applause from the members of the European Parliament.‌ While Von der Leyen's speech set a course towards enlargement, her counterpart at the European Council went further.

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At a speech at the Bled Strategic Forum in Slovenia on August 28, Charles Michel, EU Council President, set a clear timeline for when he thinks the EU should be ready to grow. 

"The Kremlin is attacking all that we believe in - freedom, democracy, prosperity, and cooperation. So, in June last year, we granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. The same status awaits Georgia when they complete the necessary steps," he said.

He added: "To be credible, I believe we must talk about timing and homework. And I have a proposal. As we prepare the EU's next strategic agenda, we must set ourselves a clear goal. I believe we must be ready - on both sides - to enlarge by 2030."‌

Michel's speech could be seen by some as firing the starting gun, a move which will reverberate across the EU.‌ The very same day, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a 'multi-speed' union, one that would require the EU to undergo fairly significant reforms.

"The risk is to think we can enlarge without reform. I can testify that it is hard enough for Europe to advance on sensitive topics with 27 members. With 32 or 35 members, it won't be any easier," Macron said.

‌The reforms mentioned by the French President would almost certainly require a reform of the EU treaty which has been in place since 2009.

On that, not everyone agrees. Two days after Michel's and Macron's interventions, Austria's foreign minister Alexander Schallenberg said the EU didn't need reform and that those calling for changes should just get on with the task of welcoming new members.

Days later, French, German and Portuguese EU ministers rebuked this sentiment in a joint op-ed.

"When we say we need to reform, it's not to create an obstacle to enlargement. On the contrary; to create the conditions that will allow us to have new members getting in."

‌One of those potential members, Albania, expressed some skepticism about Charles Michel's 2030 timeline. Prime Minister Edi Rama, while he was grateful for Michel's enthusiasm, offered a different timeline.

"We have another 20 years of Euro-optimism, and I hope that by then you have fulfilled your promise."

‌This debate, while still tempered and technical, marks the start of what is sure to be a long and drawn out existential process for the European Union, and its potential new members.

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