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Poland set to hold election amid Belarus border tensions
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Europe;Poland

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Polish soldiers sit on a Leopard 2PL tank at Wesola military base in Warsaw, Poland. /Kacper Pempel/Reuters
Polish soldiers sit on a Leopard 2PL tank at Wesola military base in Warsaw, Poland. /Kacper Pempel/Reuters

Polish soldiers sit on a Leopard 2PL tank at Wesola military base in Warsaw, Poland. /Kacper Pempel/Reuters

Poland's president announced that the country would hold its parliamentary election on October 15, marking the official start of an electoral campaign that informally has been underway for months and is being shaped by Russia's offensive in Ukraine.

President Andrzej Duda said in a statement posted on microblogging site X, formerly known as Twitter, that the elections for the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, and for the 100-seat Senate will both take place on the same day in October.

Lawmakers will be elected for a four-year term, and the party with the most votes will be tapped to form the next government.

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The governing Law and Justice (PiS), a eurosceptic and nationalist party frequently clashing with the EU on rule of law, will seek a third straight term in office, following its 2015 and 2019 triumphs.

The party is likely to secure the highest number of seats with a predicted 33.4 percent of voting intentions, according to an IBRiS poll published last week. But it is likely to fall short of an outright majority in parliament.

It holds a small lead over a centrist bloc, the Civic Coalition, headed by Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister and former president of the European Council. Support for Tusk’s party has grown in past months but mostly at the expense of other opposition parties.

 

Rising instability on eastern border

The result of the vote is likely to influence whether there will be an improvement in relations with Brussels, which have been soured by rows over issues such as the rule of law and migration.

The election will also decide who will lead the NATO-member and key Ukrainian ally through a period of rising instability on its eastern border, amid concerns about the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus and an increase in attempts by migrants to cross the frontier illegally.

Tensions have also been growing with ally Ukraine, on the country's southeastern border, over grain imports and historical memories of past ethnic conflict.

The ruling party has been seeking to present itself as strong on national defense given the turmoil across its eastern borders. It has ordered 2,000 troops to beef up security at the Belarus border and is planning a large military parade on the August 15 Armed Forces Day holiday next week to show off new military equipment as it modernizes its defenses.

Belarus started military exercises near the border this week, and President Alexander Lukashenko said several times that he is restraining Wagner fighters who want to attack Poland.

Poland's leaders have made multiple visits to Kyiv to support the Ukrainian war effort. But recently they have been taking a more confrontational stance with Ukraine as a far-right political group that has been critical of helping Ukrainians, Confederation, has been rising in the opinion polls.

U.S. President Joe Biden has visited Poland twice since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, given its geographical position and support for Ukraine and acceptance of large numbers of Ukrainian refugees.

 

Cash incentives and inflation

The praise Warsaw has gained for helping Ukraine has allowed the government to avoid some of the scrutiny it has faced in past years over concerns in the West that its approach to the judiciary, media and LGBTQ+ people and other minorities amounts to democratic backsliding.

The party has gained popularity with many Poles for its conservative values and increase in state help for the elderly and families with children. Early in its first term it introduced a monthly cash payment of around $123 per month for each child under 18.

President Duda, who is aligned with the party, on Monday signed legislation raising that monthly payment to $196 per month, starting next January.

Though popular with many, the policy also has its critics, among them economists who argue that cash payments have helped to fuel a double-digit inflation rate, business people and young adults who resent funding the free money for others with their taxes.

 

'Ukrainization of Poland'

Criticism of the policy is also a factor behind the growing popularity of Confederation, whose members include both far-right nationalists and pro-business libertarians. Some members of the group have pushed the slogan "Stop the Ukrainization of Poland."

Last week, Poland and Ukraine called in each other’s ambassadors after an advisor to Duda said Ukraine needed to start showing appreciation to Poland for the help it was providing Kyiv in the war. Bad feelings have also been revived with a focus on massacres of Poles by Ukrainians that occurred 80 years ago, during World War II. 

Tensions with Ukraine have additionally been aggravated by a ban on Ukrainian food imports by Poland and other countries in the region – grain and other products which have caused a glut on local markets that has depressed prices for farmers. Polish farmers are a key constituent of the ruling party’s voter base, with other agrarian groups vying for their voters.

With the elections approaching, the ruling party on Tuesday fired the health minister, Adam Niedzielski, who faced criticism for revealing the personal details of a doctor and medicines he had prescribed after the doctor spoke publicly about problems in issuing electronic prescriptions.

Poland set to hold election amid Belarus border tensions

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Source(s): AP ,AFP ,Reuters

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