The Turkish President has again raised the prospect of his country joining the European Union.

After dropping his long running opposition to Sweden's NATO application at the bloc's Vilnius summit, President Erdogan linked the issue to Türkiye's stalled EU membership bid for the first time. 

Speaking ahead of the meeting Erdogan told Brussels, "Pave the way for Türkiye in the European Union, and we will then pave the way for Sweden."

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Five years ago, the Council of the European Union said Türkiye's membership bid was at a "standstill," citing "continuing and deeply worrying backsliding on the rule of law and fundamental rights."

Could this be changing? 

Why has Türkiye failed to join the EU until now? 

Türkiye first applied to join the then European Economic Community in 1959. It was 40 years later in December 1999 when it was finally granted candidate status at the Helsinki summit of the European Council. 

From the outset, key EU states, notably France and Austria, opposed its accession. 

As well as concerns in the EU over its troubled record on democratic rule, and string of military coups, member states argue that Türkiye's position on the disputed status of Cyprus has effectively barred it from membership.   

Why does Türkiye want to restart negotiations now? 

Most analysts agree that there are two key reasons for this; the worsening state of the Turkish economy, and a rethink by President Erdogan over relations with Russia as the conflict in Ukraine continues.

Russia remains one of Türkiye's biggest trading partners, with the Turkstream pipeline supplying almost half of the republic's natural gas, while Turkish exports to Russia rose by 43 percent in the first half of 2022, after fighting broke out.

Unlike EU member states, Türkiye declined to impose full sanctions on Russia after it began its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022, and there has been concern in Brussels over burgeoning ties between the two nations. 

However, in a surprise move on July 8, five Ukrainian commanders of the Azov battalion who had been held in Türkiye after a prisoner swap last September, flew home with President Zelenskyy after his trip to Istanbul. The Kremlin denounced the actions as a "violation" of the agreement with Ankara. 

"There was a perception in recent years that the Turkish-Russian relationship had gone too far. This indicates a clear rebalancing," says Galip Dalay, Türkiye analyst at the Chatham House think tank.

Secondly, Türkiye is suffering an acute economic crisis with inflation running at close to 40 percent and its foreign currency reserves depleted. The newly re-appointed finance chief Mehemt Simsek wants to reboot Türkiye's relations with the EU, winning back overseas investment and hard currency inflows.  

"Türkiye wants the EU to play a role in its economic recovery. 'Let's revitalize Türkiye-EU relations' is an indirect way of saying this," says Evren Balta, professor of international relations at Ozyegin University.

Could Türkiye join the EU soon? 

Seasoned EU watchers say Türkiye's membership chances remain as remote as ever. Key accession "chapters" in areas like an independent judiciary and media, and fundamental rights for citizens have been frozen for years. 

In addition, Türkiye is facing removal from the Council of Europe, the bloc's leading human rights body, over the ongoing imprisonment of two of its most high-profile political prisoners - the philanthropist Osman Kavala and former chair of the pro- Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) Selahattin Demirtas. Ankara accuses both men of terrorism. 

What are Türkiye's alternatives to EU membership?  

Given Ankara's goals, analysts believe instead an upgrade to Türkiye's existing relationship with Brussels is the most likely option. This could mean a revamp of the 28 year old EU-Türkiye customs union. 

This would boost trade for some of Türkiye's biggest exports in areas like agriculture, manufacturing and textiles. 

However Erdogan's other big goal, visa free travel for Turks across the Schengen zone of 23 member states, remains on hold, with EU requirements on fighting corruption, revising terrorism legislation and data protection unmet. 

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