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Türkiye election 2023: What's at stake in the final round of voting?
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is facing Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Türkiye's presidential runoffs on Sunday. /Umit Bektas//Cagla Gurdogan/Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is facing Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Türkiye's presidential runoffs on Sunday. /Umit Bektas//Cagla Gurdogan/Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is facing Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Türkiye's presidential runoffs on Sunday. /Umit Bektas//Cagla Gurdogan/Reuters

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hoping to extend his rule into a third decade in the second round of voting in Türkiye's elections on Sunday.

He's currently the favorite in the runoff vote, ahead of his challenger secular Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

That's after his campaign was buoyed both by his Islamist-rooted AK Party and its allies winning a parliamentary majority on May 14, and by the endorsement of a nationalist politician who came third in the first round.

However, Kilicdaroglu, who received the endorsement of another far-right leader, is backed by a six-party alliance including his Republican People's Party (CHP).

Taking place amid a severe economic crisis and just three months after earthquakes in southeast Türkiye killed more than 50,000 people, the run off will decide how Türkiye is governed, where its economy is headed, and the shape of its foreign policy. 

Here's what you need to know about the final stage of voting in the election.

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What's at stake for Türkiye?

The most powerful leader since the founder of the Turkish republic Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Erdogan and his AK Party have shifted dramatically shifted away from Ataturk's secular policies: he has eased restrictions on women wearing headscarfs in state occupations and promoted Islam as a key feature of Turkish culture. 

But there has also been a vast centralization of power around an executive presidency, based in a 1,000-room palace on the edge of Ankara, which sets policy on Türkiye's economic, security, domestic and international affairs.

A child plays at a playground next to the portrait of modern Türkiye's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. /Yves Herman/Reuters
A child plays at a playground next to the portrait of modern Türkiye's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. /Yves Herman/Reuters

A child plays at a playground next to the portrait of modern Türkiye's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. /Yves Herman/Reuters

Erdogan's critics say his government has silenced dissent, eroded civil rights and taken control of the judicial system, a charge denied by officials who say it has protected citizens in the face of unique security threats including a 2016 coup attempt.

Then there's the economy. The president has championed low interest rates as a way out of Türkiye's economic crisis, but that sent inflation soaring to a 24-year high of 85 percent last year and the lira dropping to one tenth of its value against the dollar over the last decade.

 

How about the rest of the world?

Under Erdogan, Türkiye has has become a significant military power in the Middle East and beyond, launching four incursions into Syria, waging an offensive against Kurdish fighters inside Iraq and sending military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.

Ankara has also clashed with regional powers Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, and continued to escalate tensions with Greece and Cyprus over eastern Mediterranean maritime boundaries, despite some rapprochement with some of its rivals in the last two years. 

Erdogan's rule has also seen growing hostility with the West, despite its status as a NATO member. Ankara's purchase of Russian air defenses triggered U.S. arms industry sanctions, while the president's ties to Russian leader Vladimir Putin have raised questions about his loyalties in Washington. 

There's also Türkiye's move to slow down the NATO membership applications of Sweden and Finland. However, Türkiye also brokered a deal for Ukrainian wheat exports, underlining the potential role Erdogan has in helping the Ukrainian peace effort.

It is not clear that a successor would enjoy the same international sway that the current president does, a point he has made in the election campaign.

 

What is the opposition proposing? 

Two main opposition parties, the secularist CHP and center-right nationalist IYI Party, have allied themselves with four smaller parties, pledging to reverse many of Erdogan's signature policies.

They have promised to restore independence to the central bank and reverse Erdogan's unorthodox economic policies. They would also take apart his executive presidency and replace it with the previous parliamentary system, and send back Syrian refugees.

A man walks in front of the posters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkish presidential candidate of a six-party opposition alliance. /Hannah McKay/Reuters
A man walks in front of the posters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkish presidential candidate of a six-party opposition alliance. /Hannah McKay/Reuters

A man walks in front of the posters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkish presidential candidate of a six-party opposition alliance. /Hannah McKay/Reuters

They also aim to improve relations with Western allies including the U.S., prompting speculation such a policy could spur foreign investment.

Erdogan supported failed efforts to depose Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the fallout of which led at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees entering the country, a group that has become increasingly unwelcome at a time of economic hardship in Türkiye.

Hoping to woo nationalist voters, Kilicdaroglu has in the last two weeks increased his anti-immigrant tone and promised to repatriate migrants.

 

How close is the race?

Kilicdaroglu got 44.9 percent in the first round compared to Erdogan's 49.5 percent, reflecting solid support despite a deep cost-of-living crisis and polls which had shown Kilicdaroglu in the lead. 

Pollsters later highlighted an unexpected surge in nationalist support at the ballot box to explain the result.

Erdogan has said a vote for him will ensure stability after his alliance secured a parliamentary majority.

Türkiye's four-decade conflict with the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has factored into the campaigning, with Kurds having originally supported Erdogan. That may change following the government's crackdown on the domestic Kurdish political movement and Kurdish militants in neighboring Syria.  

While not part of the opposition alliance, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) has endorsed Kilicdaroglu.

Erdogan's attacks against Kilicdaroglu have included accusations, without evidence, of him winning support from the seperatist PKK. Kilicdaroglu has denied the accusations.

Türkiye election 2023: What's at stake in the final round of voting?

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Source(s): Reuters

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