France will have to prepare for temperatures of four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the century's end, according to the government's minister for ecological transition, as the world falls short of meeting its climate change targets.

Christophe Bechu told the weekly JDD paper that his government was no longer convinced that it was achievable to limit the increase of temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even below 2 degrees – as agreed in the landmark 2015 Paris climate treaty. 

Instead, the most optimistic scenario for 2100 was now 2 degrees for metropolitan France. However, it was more likely it would be twice that. 

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"Unless all the world's nations intensify their efforts to cut emissions further still, we are on track for global warming of between +2.8 and +3.2 degrees on average, which means +4 degrees for France because Europe is warming fast," Bechu said.

The government calls such a scenario "pessimistic", but Bechu said "in truth we should call it realistic."

He added that French efforts at adaptation should be based on the 4 degrees outlook, which France should prepare for.

Bechu is set on Tuesday to launch a public consultation to help define the French government's climate change roadmap and strategy for adaptation, as well as outline further efforts at greenhouse gas reduction.

"We can't escape the global reality of global warming," the minister said in a statement. "We will therefore have to prepare concretely for its unavoidable effects on our country and our lives. This is why we want to give our country a clear adaptation trajectory."

Last year was the hottest year on record in France, with records going back to 1900.

Bechu said France could face heatwaves lasting two months at a time if temperatures rise by 4 degrees, and some southern parts of the country might see up to 90 nights per year with sweltering tropical temperatures.

Droughts and extreme rainfall would also become commonplace.

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