Since 1980, Spain's average available water has decreased by 12 percent and projections indicate that by 2050 there may be a further decrease of between 14 and 40 percent.

"We cannot guarantee water supply for drinking water or for economic uses by relying exclusively on rain," said Spain's minister for ecological transition Teresa Ribera recently.

The government has announced a new water management plan, but it has caused regional tensions with the farming community in the arid southeast which relies on the precious resource for their industry.

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Economic 'catastrophe'

One measure that the government is implementing is to raise the minimum flow of the River Tagus to protect its ecological future. The Tagus, known in Spanish as the Tajo and Portuguese as the Tejo, flows from a source in Aragon in northern Spain, past Madrid and through Portugal into the sea near Lisbon.

That measure, however, threatens the livelihood of thousands of people in the southeast of Spain who rely on agricultural products grown for export.

CGTN Europe traveled to what's known as the 'Garden of Europe' to see the orange harvest in Orihuela where workers pick the fruit by hand. "This is a catastrophe for our local economy," says Jose Vicente Andreu, president of the ASAJA farmers association in Alicante.

"Five thousand or more people would lose their jobs and a lot of families might have to change what they do for a living."

25,000 jobs at risk

The regional job losses across the Valencia, Murcia and Almeria regions could be even greater, with around 25,000 livelihoods under threat. The Tagus river has been supplying the Segura river with water since the 1930s via the Tagus-Segura Transfer - one of Spain's largest ever hydraulic projects.

Water travels over 280 kilometers from the source via huge pipes and man made canals, allowing the drier southeast regions to grow crops for export. Oranges, strawberries, watermelons, peppers, lettuce, cucumbers, cauliflower, broccoli: more than 60 percent of all of Spain's fruit and vegetable exports come from the region.

So why does the reduction in flow of the river affect farms and plots hundreds of kilometers away?

The issue is that the Tagus and its corresponding reservoir are only legally allowed to pump water to the Segura transfer when the water level is above a certain limit. But that limit has now been raised, which will reduce the water supply available for irrigation.

"This finca [ranch] will lose half its water," says Andreu, as temporary workers from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Colombia pile oranges into baskets around him. Most of the fruit is bound for export across the continent.

"Our work environment is really stressful right now, there's a lot of anxiety," he adds. "They haven't thought about the effect this will have on the population of this area. We want them to take us into account and re-evaluate the decision."

$25 billion dollar water plan

The government's plan is to supplement the shortfall with more efficient infrastructure and an increase in desalinated water. They have pledged nearly $25 billion nationwide to improve water management, also committing to water reuse and irrigation efficiency programs.

Andres Molina, the director of the Institute of Water at Alicante University, opposes the new government measure, saying that the motivation to reduce the water flow from the Tegus is more political than technical.

"The best solution is to keep things as they are regarding the flow limit in the Tagus. It's all been well planned, and we can combine that with desalinated water," he says. He adds that desalination plants use four times the energy than the Tagus-Segura water transfer currently does.

"Desalinated water is no substitute for the water transfer. Right now that's not possible economically and ecologically speaking," he says.

Climate crisis threatening water security

The impact of a warming planet is being felt severely in Spain, a country on the front lines of the climate crisis. In 2022 wildfires turned more forests to ash than ever, while the prolonged summer led to ever more intense periods of drought.

A changing climate is also producing strange weather phenomena which is affecting Spain. Andreu says rainfall was actually higher this season, but the way it fell harmed their harvest, causing a 10 percent drop in their yield.

"When it should be warm it's cold and when we need it to be dry it's wet," he explains.

March 2022 broke records for rainfall in Valencia, but as one farmer told CGTN Europe, it meant that bees couldn't fly to pollinate the orange flowers, leading to a reduction in fruit yields.

"The bees died of hunger because they can't fly in the rain," he says.

Beyond local pressures, a severe drought in 2017 sparked concerns that the Tagus could soon dry up completely.  Specialists said this was the consequence of a perfect storm: climate change, too much waste coming from Madrid, and excess water being transfered from a river that is dammed 51 times in Spain alone.

Environmental specialists warned at the time that such extraction was untenable, and that southern reliance on water subsidies from the Segura and Tajo basins would have to change amid the realities of growing water scarcity. 

But in an era of such uncertain water security, and consequent economic insecurity, there are no easy solutions.