The Vienna nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. are one step closer to conclusion as Tehran starts to review Washington's response to the European Union's draft deal. 

Negotiations are moving forward in a constructive manner on an almost daily basis. Should the parties agree on all matters including UN inspections of Iran's nuclear program, then one thing is clear - the global oil market will undergo major changes.

As soon as all Western sanctions are lifted, within three months Iran could export "some 700-800,000 barrels per day of additional output into the global markets", analyst Viktor Katona at Keplr, tells CGTN Europe.

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"Beyond that Iran would find it difficult to ramp up production as a lot of equipment is dilapidated and has not been invested into," he said.

Thus, Iran would be able to replace Russian oil and that could push the price down from currently around $100  to $80 per barrel. 

"Iran would emerge out of the grey area and finally trade legally, no longer relying on China exclusively to buy its crude," the analysts added.

However, other oil exporters consider counteracting such a price drop. 

"For Saudi Arabia, whose fiscal break-even level is around $85 per barrel, a huge drop in oil prices is a most unwelcome scenario, likewise for sanctions-battered Russia. So both would counteract any price drops and the quickest way they can do it is to curb supply," Katona added.

One of the hurdles still remaining for a nuclear agreement is Tehran's demand that future U.S. presidents are legally prevented from departing from any agreement, as former leader Donald Trump did in 2018.  

Nevertheless, one thing is certain: a deal would mean more competition in the oil market - and presumably ease the life of consumers at the gas pumps.