WHAT'S THE ISSUE?
And then there were two.
Exactly as in 2017, Emmanuel Macron will face off against Marine Le Pen to become the next president of France.
Five years ago, Macron romped home with 66% of the vote. But this time round, it looks like a far tighter race - with some even predicting that Le Pen could find herself with the keys to the Élysée Palace on April 24th.
So what's really at stake here for France, the European Union and indeed global geopolitics?
Joining Stephen Cole on this week's Agenda to discuss what might happen going forward are Jacques Reland, Senior Research Fellow at the Global Policy Institute, Bruno Cautrès from the Sciences Po University in Paris and Dr Paul Smith, political scientist from the University of Nottingham.
MEET THE EXPERTS
Jacques Reland is a Senior Research Fellow for the Global Policy institute, specializing mainly on French and European economic and social policies. From 1988 to 2005, he was the senior French Economic Analyst for Oxford Analytica and produced over 200 reports on French activity, employment trends and social, economic and labour legislation.
Bruno Cautrès is a CNRS-affiliated Research Fellow at CEVIPOF-Sciences Po in Paris. His research focuses on the analysis of political behavior, political attitudes and on elections. He has worked on the main French election studies over the past two decades: the 2002 National French Electoral Panel, the 2007 National French Electoral panel, the 2012 National Election Study and the 2017 National French Electoral Survey. He is also a member of the editorial boards of the Revue Française de Science Politique and the Revue Française de Sociologie.
Dr Paul Smith is Associate Professor in French History and Politics at the University of Nottingham. As Head of Section, he oversees matters relating to French and Francophone studies. Paul is a historian who specializes in 19th, 20th and 21st century French history, political institutions and political culture.
WHAT DO THEY SAY?
So what exactly has changed since the two faced off for the Presidency five years ago?
"The difference this time is that Marine Le Pen got a better result [in round one]…and looks like she could attract some votes from even the left, which means that she could be challenging Macron." Jacques Reland tells Stephen – a point echoed by Bruno Cautrès who says "It's a very different second round because Emmanuel Macron is now the incumbent. He's no longer the young Macron who'd never been elected at the age of 39."
Cautrès goes on to say whether or not you agree with her policies, this time Marine Le Pen has run a much better campaign: "She's managed the situation in Ukraine very well, despite her Russian sympathies…She's talking about buying, purchasing power. So actually, she's telling the truth, not only to workers, not only to low level employees, but she's talking a lot to the middle classes too."
The specter of the so-called Yellow Vest protests of 2020 is also hanging heavy over Macron's campaign. "Macron failed to respond to the anger [of the Yellow Vest protests] – so that anger has been sitting there ready to be captured in 2022. I think that that idea of a France that is still angry or frustrated or wondering about how to pay its bills at the end of the month and the cost of living…that is a France that's very real."
And of course the result in France will have a huge impact on the rest of Europe – and perhaps especially the future of the European Union. "The future of Europe is absolutely in balance" says Smith, suggesting the pro-European voters of the candidates who went out in the first round could be a vital base for Macron to beat Le Pen: "That has to be a line that Macron pushes because foreign policy is a fundamental part of the French presidential identity."