WHAT'S THE ISSUE?

Talks to bring peace to Ukraine appear to have somewhat stalled in the wake of escalating claims and counter claims of war crimes in the region.

But as and when peace talks do resume, just what might the two sides really have to negotiate with? And what's it really like to be a part of such talks?
One man who knows better than most is the Former Prime Minister of Finland, Alexander Stubb, who brokered the peace deal in Georgia in 2008. Here he gives Stephen his take on what he says could be a long and difficult road to peace.

MEET THE EXPERT

Professor Alexander Stubb  the former Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Foreign Minister, Trade and Europe Minister of Finland. He was a Member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2008 and national parliament from 2011 to 2017. Between 2017 and 2020 he also served as Vice President of the European Investment Bank.

Between 1995 and 2004, Stubb worked as an advisor at the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Helsinki and Brussels and in President Romano Prodi's team at the European Commission, where he was involved in the negotiation of the Treaties of Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon.

In 2008 he was part of the negotiating team that helped bring about a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Russia and Georgia.

Alexander Stubb is currently the director of the School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute, based in Florence, Italy.

WHAT DOES STUBB SAY?

"Now I have met Putin a few times" Stubb tells Stephen: "What are the lessons to be drawn? The lessons are very simple. He's very well prepared. He's very analytical. And all of those people think that he's irrational or has lost his marbles because of COVID isolation, I don't think they know what they're talking about. And to be honest, I think they are barking up the wrong tree."

It took Professor Stubb and the team just a matter of days to come up with a peace plan for Georgia in 2008 – but he says this is a far more complex situation, and he's not hopeful for a breakthrough any time soon: "You know, these things are usually gradual. You start with second tier diplomats, then you start moving into first tier diplomats, then you might get some politicians involved. And the big shots say President Putin or President Zelenskyy do not get involved unless a deal is really imminent. So therefore, I can just conclude that we are nowhere near a ceasefire agreement at this particular stage."

He goes on to consider what this conflict really means for global geopolitics: "We have to understand that this is not only about Russia versus the West, it is about the global order. And the way in which we should read the UN vote is to say that yes, 141 states [voted] against Russia. Yes. Four for Russia. And then 35 abstained. But those 35, they represent roughly 50 percent of the world's population. So I think a key state here is China, and we in the West have to understand that the international order has been created in the image of the victors of World War Two and in many ways in the image of the West. So if something comes out of this, we need to think about the global order, a new one and what that means and that will require cooperation between China and the West."

ALSO ON THE AGENDA:

- Russian Federation Senator, Konstantin Kosachev explains what Moscow now thinks needs to happen to bring peace to the region, and why in spite of increased Western sanctions, Russia doesn't feel isolated.  

FIND MORE STORIES FROM THE AGENDA WITH STEPHEN COLE HERE