Global Business Daily: Markets rally, oil price rises but EU slows
Louise Greenwood
Europe;United Kingdom

Investors are detaching from "gloomy fundamentals ... chief among which are surging global COVID infections, and instead looking ahead to next summer." 

Those were the words of Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Associates, speaking as Brent crude futures rose nearly 2 percent in Monday trading, amid investors' hopes that a successful roll out of COVID-19 vaccines may begin by the end of the year.  

In the UK, the headlines have been dominated by an announcement from drug maker AstraZeneca, the firm behind the University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine trials, that its prototype treatment may offer up to 90 percent effectiveness. While in the U.S., anticipation is high that health regulators may approve the Pfizer/Biotech vaccine prototype within weeks. 

The news of a possible end to the COVID-19 gloom can't come soon enough for beleaguered eurozone economies. The latest data show private sector investment is continuing to fall amid the lockdown restrictions in many member states, with the threat emerging of a "double-dip" recession across the bloc as a whole.

The UK's chief finance minister, Rishi Sunak, has pledged no return to austerity cuts when he unveils public spending plans this week, despite the UK now grappling with its highest level of public debt in peacetime.

Unsurprisingly, many of Europe's biggest corporate firms are starting to plan ahead for the post-pandemic future. French food giant Danone has unveiled plans for a "local first" policy, with a smaller, more focused range of products and more autonomy for producers. Elsewhere, consolidation remains the name of the game for Europe's troubled banking sector, with Credit Agricole in talks to buy Italy's Credito Valtellinese.

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Louise Greenwood  

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Britain's AstraZeneca said on Monday its vaccine could be around 90 percent effective without any serious side effects, news hailed by the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as "incredibly exciting." 

Meanwhile, health regulators in the U.S. say approval for the prototype treatment developed by Pfizer and German partner BioNTech may come as soon as mid-December, raising hopes that mass-vaccination programs could follow before the end of the year. 

The pan-Europe STOXX 600 index was up 0.4 percent in early trading, its highest point since late February, with energy and banking sectors leading gains.  

The need for poorer countries to access effective COVID-19 treatment was raised at the virtual summit of G20 leaders in Riyadh at the weekend. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel urged COVAX, the arm of the WHO responsible for vaccination distribution, to start talks with producers immediately. France's President Emmanuel Macron added that the global vaccine response had to be "based on solidarity." So far, almost all of the vaccines in development have been subject to pre-ordering programs by the world's biggest economies. 

European economies continue to feel the fallout from the pandemic. The latest eurozone data from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks private sector growth, fell to 45.1 in November. The point separating growth from contraction is 50. Additional data also out on Monday from Reuters suggest the bloc could be on course for its first double-dip recession in a decade.

The UK's finance minister Rishi Sunak says there will be no return to austerity cuts in the latest spending review to be announced later this week. Sunak has spoken of "quite a significant" increase in funding for public services despite UK debt rising to $2.7 trillion since the outbreak of the pandemic in February. 

Away from the pandemic, Brexit talks are continuing to drag on policymakers in Brussels who have been holding discussions over the weekend. The EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, claims "fundamental differences" persist in trade talks with the UK, aimed at hammering out a post-Brexit agreement. He added that both sides are "continuing to work hard for a deal." 

China has proposed the use of QR codes to help ease the return to international travel. Speaking virtually at the G20 summit meeting at the weekend, President Xi Jinping said further measures were needed to "facilitate the orderly flow of people." QR codes – machine-readable optical codes that can be stored on a mobile phone – have been used to help contain the spread of the virus in China since early this year.   

France's second biggest listed bank Credit Agricole is in talks to buy Italy's Credito Valtellinese (Creval) in an $875 million deal. It hopes the acquisition will double its market share in Italy's wealthiest region Lombardy to 6 percent. Under the terms, its insurance unit Credit Agricole Assurance will sell its 9.8 percent stake in Creval to Credit Agricole Italia. 

Danone has laid out restructuring plans aimed at saving the firm up to $1.2 billion by next year. The French food giant says it plans to refocus on a policy of "local first" in the post-pandemic era, giving more autonomy to suppliers, while reducing its product range by up to a third. It's warning up to 2,000 jobs may be at risk. 

Greece's Alpha Bank has picked the U.S. investment fund Davidson Kempner as its preferred bidder for what will be the country's biggest sale yet of non-performing loans. A $12.81 billion portfolio of bad debt is for disposal, including Alpha's bad loan servicing unit, Cepal. The portfolio, known as "Galaxy," consists of a mix of retail and corporate failed loans.

 

 

WATCH: The European Union is backing plans for a "smart water society," using data on sewers, which it's believed may hold key information on the outbreak and the spread of future viruses.  

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In the UK, a long-awaited report by a former High Court judge into one of the biggest investment scandals in recent years is poised for release. The investigation by Elizabeth Gloster into the collapse of investment fund London Capital & Finance, will examine the role of the UK watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority, in the $314 million scandal.

 

CGTN Europe spoke to personal finance expert Jasmine Birtles and asked her about the growing threat of scams, particularly in the cyber age.

I think that social media now has been a problem and, again, it's terribly easy, very cheap as well, to buy advertising in social media or indeed not even to advertise, just to set up rather impressive-looking accounts and promote all sorts of bogus investing schemes. Cryptocurrency could be not just investing, it could be loans, credit scoring and some property-investment schemes, all kinds. And again, I would say that any sort of investment scheme you see on social media, you know, you could look it up elsewhere ... really research it properly online. But, generally speaking, don't go with (a product) if it's on social media.

 

How global has the problem become?

Part of the problem is that it's very easy now for anybody in any country to contact people in any other country. So you do have some countries that are particularly known for being the homes of scams and then they contact every other country in the world. Of course, America is very much a target ... they're seen as people who have money. But then, you know, Europe generally does have, or it's trying to have, more regulation, more checks and balances. In the UK, if you put your money into a savings account, the first 85,000 pounds [$113,000] are covered by the financial services compensation scheme. And it's the same across Europe with euros and also different countries like France, for example. They have their version of the Financial Conduct Authority. But all of these agencies are playing catch-up all the time, with the very clever companies or little operations around the world that are trying to defraud others.

 

What's the advice for consumers?

It's a war. It's a quiet, subtle war. I would say the very first thing you should do is, boringly, be suspicious of anything that comes to you out of the blue in a phone call on social media or even in newspapers and magazines that you read. Amazing returns are never guaranteed. If the returns are high, there will be risk involved and you need to find out what that is. And, secondly, I would say, it's a really good idea to get a little bit of education. So, read the articles, find out, listen to what other people who know about money are saying and get your knowledge level up a bit. And, thirdly, I would actually ideally get a professional in once a year, maybe speak to an actual financial adviser to look at your money and tell you what you should probably be doing with it. 

 

The latest data from the International Energy Agency show the extent to which oil demand and supply fell off in the second and third quarters of the year. Members of the cartel of oil producing nations OPEC+ are due to meet a week from now, to decide on possible cuts to output as the world economy enters recovery.

Source(s): AP ,Reuters