The World Bank has published a stark warning – again – on the risk of those already near the breadline falling into poverty in 2020 and 2021. More than 100 million people are at risk of slipping below the poverty line just from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Despite the enduring message of anti-poverty politics and the success of Asian countries in nearly eradicating poverty in the 20th century, the number of people living on less than $1.90 per day could again rise to more than 800 million people. 

"Between 2015 and 2017, the number of people worldwide living below the international  poverty line fell from 741 million to 689 million," the World Bank report noted, before adding that the rate of poverty reduction actually slowed between 2013 and 2018.

Most of the communities worst affected by poverty are in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. 

Although the global pandemic has had dire effects for workers all around the world, the reduction of poverty eradication hints at another new prediction from the World Bank in this latest report: that climate change is at least as damaging for communities as the pandemic. 

"COVID-19 is expected to push some 100 million people into extreme poverty during 2020 alone," says the report, but it goes on the predict that "New estimates commissioned for this report indicate that up to 132 million people may fall into poverty by 2030 due to the manifold effects of climate change."

The World Bank's new estimates come after a similar warning from its Migration and Development division that the money migrants send home each year will drop by 14 percent by the end of next year. 

Known as remittance flows, these grass-roots financial redistribution packages are crucial to developing economies, and the Bank projected this reliance will only increase if foreign direct investment declines as expected. 

In 2019 global remittance flows hit a record high of $548 billion, almost five times higher than overseas development funds ($166 billion). That sum is expected to fall to $508 billion this year and $470 billion in 2021, declining by around 7 percent each year. 

With rising levels of poverty around the world, global migration is likely to rise in the coming years, and less money being sent to developing countries from those who have already moved may add to push factors leading to migration. 

Conflict, war and people fleeing their homes are also huge factors in poverty increases, and the Bank noted that the ongoing conflicts happening in Syria and Yemen have had significant impact on the slowdown in the reduction in poverty rates. 

"The Middle East and North Africa region showed an increase in the extreme poverty rate between 2015 and 2018. The rate rose from 2.3 percent in 2013 to 3.8 percent in 2015 and almost doubled to 7.2 percent in 2018. The conflicts in the Syrian Arab Republic and the Republic of Yemen are among the leading explanations for this increase."

Examining the World Bank's report for CGTN, Nairobi-based communication expert Stephen Ndegwa notes that there are ways to lift people out of poverty. "China leads the pack of nations that have successfully confronted poverty and single-mindedly implemented tough measures to uplift the majority of its people from the grip of socio-economic desperation," he said. 

"For China, poverty is more than a policy issue. It is a problem that touches the soul of its leadership, which informs the government's concerted efforts to ensure a basic minimum standard for its people. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping set a deadline of 2020 for the country's rural areas to defeat extreme poverty."

READ MORE Stephen Ndegwa on the World Bank report