A clutch of elections in Italy delivered little of the political change that had been widely predicted – with the exception of a referendum approving a motion to slash the number of politicians in parliament. 

What happened

Each of Italy’s 20 regions has its own elections, separate from the national general election (last held in 2018). Seven regions voted over the weekend in elections delayed for six months by the coronavirus outbreak.

Matteo Salvini, leader of the populist Lega party, had targeted a clean sweep of victories to weaken the center-left coalition which rules at national level. However, most votes preserved the status quo. The right kept control of the northern regions of Veneto and Liguria and is expected to do so in the Francophone Alpine region of Val d'Aosta, but the left held on in Campania, Puglia and Tuscany. 

The one region that did change fulfilled predictions of a wider rightward shift: the longtime center-left stronghold of Marche went to the Brothers of Italy, an anti-immigration party backed by other right-wing groups. 

Meanwhile, the national referendum on reducing the number of parliamentarians from 945 to 600 was enthusiastically backed by the populace, with around 70 percent approval. The idea was central to the successful 2018 general election of the newcomer 5 Star Movement, which won the most seats in the national vote and is in coalition with the left-wing Democratic Party (PD). 

Why it matters

Stretching from the sunbaked Mediterranean to the snow-peaked central European Alps, and keenly contested by a number of ideological factions, Italy can be seen as a bellwether for European politics. 

These regional votes present a drift to the right, but without decisive gains in power – despite experts' predictions of Salvini's strong campaigning leading to regional wins.

Overall, the results were seen as a disappointment for the right and a relief for the left-leaning coalition ruling at national level. PD leader Nicola Zingaretti said: "What won was a team, a community... Now we go forward to change, close to the people."

The PD's national coalition partner 5 Star could also revel in the public backing of its plan to reduce the number of parliamentarians. "We have done it, another time," said senior 5 Star figure and foreign minister Luigi Di Maio. "Those that tried to transform this referendum into a vote against the government received a boomerang."

Even so, 5 Star's celebrations could mask concerns over its lack of support in these regional elections, if the party is to move from being a campaigning newcomer into being an ongoing political force. 

What happens next

The referendum was a constitutional confirmation: the amendment had already been provisionally approved by parliament and will now take effect from the next general election, which will be no later than 2023 – although Riccardo Molinari, who leads the Lega party in the Chamber of Deputies, opportunistically asked for the parliament to be dissolved and new elections to be held in honor of the change. 

Despite 5 Star's triumphalism and the PD's relief, there was an acknowledgement of public dissatisfaction with the political class as Zingaretti proclaimed that "the victory of the 'Yes' opens up a season of reforms." Di Maio agreed that "Today is a starting point, not a final destination."

This was not a political earthquake, said Giovanni Orsina, professor of political science and the head of the school of government at Rome's Luiss University. But the results confirmed that while the rightward drift threatens the left, the current coalition has been buoyed by the votes.

"The national message is the PD didn't lose Puglia," Orsina said. "Of course, this means that the PD is going to be a more solid party, and this means also that the government is going to be more solid."

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The results continued a downward arc for Salvini, the former deputy prime minister and interior minister when in coalition with 5 Star. His attempts to consolidate his power last year by calling for early elections led to him leaving government as 5 Star switched partners from the Lega to PD, and now he may find himself under threat within his own party.

Lega president Luca Zaia was already seen as a potential replacement for Salvini, and he led the Lega to a sizeable victory in Veneto with 75.9 percent of the vote (up from 50 percent in 2015). Although he dismissed speculation that he could become the national center-right leader (insisting "It doesn't interest me"), his strong showing will only increase his popularity among those who would like the rightward shift of power to accelerate faster than Italy voted for this weekend.