A stark warning from the book that predicted the 2020 pandemic
Updated 00:54, 22-Aug-2020
Elizabeth Mearns
Europe;
04:43

Twenty Twenty was published by Hodder and Stoughton in August 1995, the fourth novel written by the acclaimed author Nigel Watts. What made this book remarkable was its "prediction" of a viral pandemic, a world of virtual communication and a planet heading towards environmental catastrophe.

Tragically, Watts took his life in 1999 but in April 2020, his widow Sahera Chohan found herself in lockdown and like many of us, started sorting through her home.

I just thought, this is insane. He's basically predicted what we're living through today. He set the book in 2020, he wrote it 25 years ago, and here we are basically experiencing what he wrote about. He wasn't a scientist, he was a novelist. And that's what's so bizarre: it's like, how did he know this?
 -  Sahara Chohan

"When COVID was at its height, I brought the book down from its bookshelf – it's been out of print for over 20 years," she tells CGTN Europe. "And I read the fly-cover of the book and it talks about an author contracting a virus, a global pandemic, virtual communications…"

“I just thought, this is insane. He's basically predicted what we're living through today. He set the book in 2020, he wrote it 25 years ago, and here we are basically experiencing what he wrote about. He wasn't a scientist, he was a novelist. And that's what's so bizarre: it's like, how did he know this?”

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The novel describes events eerily similar to those we're living through today: the virus that causes the pandemic is airborne, and the streets are empty.

As movement of people is restricted, people are also prevented from travelling abroad. Key character Julia lives in Britain but is asked to go to a U.S. research facility, which is strange for her because so few people can travel, the cost of flying and hotels being hugely expensive. 

The book imagines the pandemic being at its worst in the U.S., with cities such as New York hit particularly badly.

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The author began writing the book as part of his PhD in 1993. Chohan remembers her husband having many misgivings about the way the world was heading. "He was very aware of the fact that if we carried on behaving the way we were with the planet, that eventually something pretty terrible would happen. He always felt that there was going to be some kind of disaster looming.”

The author was particularly interested in the nature of metaphysics and the implications of the technological change that would be brought about by the internet, which was in its infancy when he wrote it in the early 1990s. 

There are several references to virtual communication in the book. He talks about personal 'digi-readers' which have lots of information on them and are connected to each other in a similar way to mobile phones. 

As travel is restricted, there is a rise in virtual tourism – for example, a virtual experience of a holiday in the Amazon. And it's an indigenous South American group that provides the central message for the novel – and the planet.

Kogi shaman/Dwayne Reilander

Kogi shaman/Dwayne Reilander

They came out of hiding, if you like, to be filmed by Alan Ereira to share their message. And really, it's more a warning that if we carry on behaving the way we are, the planet will get sick and then ultimately we will get sick.
 -  Sahera Chohan

The message of the Kogi

The Kogi are an ancient people living in a remote part of northern Colombia. Determined to retain their traditional culture in the modern world, they were brought to wider prominence in 1990 by a documentary filmmaker called Alan Ereira. 

"The Kogi call themselves 'Elder Brother', and they call us 'Younger Brother',"explains Chohan, herself a TV presenter. "They came out of hiding, if you like, to be filmed by Alan Ereira to share their message. And really, it's more a warning that if we carry on behaving the way we are, the planet will get sick and then ultimately we will get sick.”

Kogi woman and child /Dwayne Reilander

Kogi woman and child /Dwayne Reilander

In his novel, Watts predicted that the people who would mobilize to save the planet would not be the adults or those with power, but the children born into the new millennium who would fight against a world that their parents had created to save their own futures.

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Feeling that the book's message is more relevant today than it was when it was published, Chohan decided to republish it in the year it was set, and in the same month it was originally published 25 years ago. But what would Watts make of how the 2020 pandemic played out?

"I think he'd probably be a little bit shocked that so much of what he wrote about is actually happening," says Chohan. "I don't think he'd be happy about it, obviously."

"He played a part in warning people. We all know climate change activists are working so hard to make sure that all of us are doing what we need to be doing to save our planet. But Nigel played a small part in that with his book."

For Chohan, there has also been a personal effect: republishing the book has allowed her to relive her time with her late husband, especially as the book is semi-autobiographical.

"In 2020, Nigel would have been 63. And the author, who is the main character in the book, is based on Nigel and is 63. And as his wife in the book, my character is an Indian woman with a diamond stud in her nose who is a TV presenter."

But not everything in the novel came true. "In the book, we have two children," says Chohan. "So for me, it was really weird to read what our lives could have been and how he'd sort of foreseen them had he not died: I'm reading about our lives together in the book, but in reality we didn't get to live that life. So, personally speaking, it's been emotional.”