The World Trade Organization, the intergovernmental body that has been helping to regulate international trade between nations since 1995, is electing a new leader.  

Amid COVID-19 and major trade wars, the current rule book is widely seen to be in need of reform and a lot is riding on the competition's outcome. 

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, a trade specialist and the director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, explained the process and the likely sticking points in the race for the top job. 

 

Why is the WTO electing a new leader?

 

The competition comes after the current WTO director-general, Brazil's Roberto Azevedo, made a surprise announcement in May that he would leave the job a year early, referencing a "personal decision."

He is ending a seven-year tenure, during which he has tried to adapt to the rise of emerging economies such as China and India and pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly accused the WTO of "unfair" treatment.

Now, in the face of COVID-19's dramatic effect on world trade and a potential rise in trade protectionism, it is felt that a new leader for a new era of trade is vital to securing the WTO's position as an international arbiter of global commerce.

Read more: WTO expects global trade to plunge 18.5% in Q2 2020

 

 

How do the elections work? 

 

The time frame for the election is yet to be decided – Azevedo has said he will leave on 31 August – but the WTO director-general is chosen by consensus by its 164 member states, based on a recommendation from its selection committee.

"The WTO is actually quite a unique organization, because every country has a veto," says Lee-Makiyama.

"Now, we need to find a candidate among the eight who will actually pass the needle's eye through all of the 164 countries."

For the analyst, the most important thing will be consensus among the top dogs in international trade: "Countries like China and the United States, the EU and Japan must agree to the candidate as someone they will be able to work with."

Read more: WTO: Salvaging global trade needs multilateralism

 

Who are the candidates?

 

There are eight candidates from around the globe, all with a strong experience in global trade, and many have already played an important role in the WTO.

The front-runners for the title are Amina Mohamed, Kenya's former minister of foreign affairs and international trade, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala – a Nigerian international development and finance specialist.

They are joined by Egypt's Abdel-Hamid Mamdouh, who has been a senior official of WTO since 1990; former South Korean trade minister, Yoo Myung-hee; and Moldova's erstwhile foreign affairs trade minister Tudor Ulianovschi. 

Jesus Seade Kuri of Mexico, who helped negotiate a new trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is also in the running, alongside Saudi Arabia's Mohammad Maziad Al-Tuwaijri, who advises the royal court on international and local economic strategy, plus Liam Fox who, as the UK's former international trade secretary, worked on getting trade deals for the UK after it leaves the European Union. 

Read more: The WTO needs a progressive leader

 

 

Who is current favorite to win?

 

Kenya's Mohamed is currently seen as the favorite for the top job, but others are also in the running.

"She hosted the ministerial conference of the World Trade Organization four years ago in Nairobi, and many ministers remember her with ambivalent feelings," says Lee-Makiyama.

"One of the things about trade, is that it rubs people up the wrong way."

Another sticking point is that Kenya currently holds the secretary-general post of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, the WTO's sister organization.

"Can you have a country controlling both organizations?" asks Lee-Makiyama. "Probably not."

But for the analyst, it could work out for Mohamed, "but it could very well not."

Read more: U.S. dropped a bomb on WTO reform

 

 

What problems will the new leader face?

 

Coronavirus: The first big issue is the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly the concerns over any trend away from free-market fundamentalism towards trade protectionism.

Lee-Makiyama says that the emergency clauses in the WTO rules during the crisis have served the WTO's members fairly well: "We haven't seen a massive increase of protectionist measures yet."

But with coronavirus recovery measures set to focus on defending local industries and limiting foreign imports, particularly from China, the analyst says the task of balancing interests at the WTO "is going to be extremely sensitive."

U.S. ultimatums: The other "mammoth in the room," according to Lee-Makiyama, is been the U.S. threatening to withdraw from the treaty.

But despite Trump's rhetorical hostility to the WTO, the analyst doesn't see the U.S. pulling out. 

He says Washington's tactic is similar to that it has used with China and Europe, "meaning that if it doesn't like the deal, it will basically break it in order to force other countries to negotiate on their own terms. 

"Bear in mind that there is very little of the multilateral system left if you take the U.S. out of it, in the same way that if you take China out of the equation," says Lee-Makiyama.

The new WTO leader will have to help smooth such dogged negotiating tactics. 

Reform: The final, and long-standing question the next director-general will face is how, following a significant shift in geopolitics and global trade, to reform a rule book that hasn't been significantly revised in more than two decades. 

"Interestingly, all the eight candidates in this race have almost identical speaking points about how the organization needs an update of the rule book," says Lee-Makiyama.

But essentially, "the director-general has very, very little to say in terms of the reform agenda," says the analyst. "In the end, it's the members who decide," he notes. 

With new trade rules potentially taking a decade to negotiate between member states, things often take time at the WTO. That means one quality the next director-general will surely have to possess is patience. 

 

Video Editor: Sam Cordell 

 

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