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With the world fighting a relentless battle against COVID-19, European governments are trying to ascertain if the time is right to ease the wide-ranging restrictions imposed on the public to stem the spread of the virus.
In order to protect the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, strict curbs on freedom of movement, social distancing, and in some extreme situations, a total lockdown have been enforced.
The logic behind the restrictions is what experts describe as trying to "flatten the curve," which means bringing down the number of new cases from one day to the next. When a country records fewer new infections than it had the previous day, it can be taken as evidence of the curve flattening.
Johns Hopkins University has been tracking the pandemic since it started spreading across the globe. The university published its latest analysis using a five-day moving average to calculate the number of cases and the rate of change – and by extension if the curve was flattening.
"This is calculated for each day by averaging the values of that day, the two days before, and the two next days. This approach helps prevent major events [such as a change in reporting methods] from skewing the data," according to the univeristy's website.
To protect the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, strict curbs on freedom of movement were enforced in many European countries. /Roberto Monaldo/LaPresse/AP
To protect the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, strict curbs on freedom of movement were enforced in many European countries. /Roberto Monaldo/LaPresse/AP
Here's a look at the five European countries most affected by COVID-19 and their attempts to limp back to normalcy, albeit in a phased manner.
Italy: One of the worst hit in the continent, the country has recorded more than 27,000 deaths and 201,505 cases. It has outlined a plan to ease restrictions imposed seven weeks ago. As per the Johns Hopkins University's five-day average data, there has been a drop in the frequency of cases.
Spain: Following close on the heels of Italy, with 23,822 deaths and 232,128 infections. Cases hit a peak around early April. Limited movement is expected to start from the first week of May. According to Johns Hopkins University's five-day average data, infections are dropping.
France: Currently has 23,660 deaths and 169,053 cases. The French government has unveiled a detailed map for a "progressive and controlled" exit from the strict lockdown from 11 May. However, Johns Hopkins analysis shows the number of people falling sick is actually on the rise.
UK: With 21,678 people succumbing to the disease and 162,350 contracting the virus to date, the UK has adopted a cautious policy over the issue of relaxing restrictions and is still discussing how to go about it in the next few weeks. The Johns Hopkins University five-day average data show fewer cases, but the British government is yet to report significant a decline from its end.
Germany: Deaths stand at 6,314 and cases at 159,912. Some rules were relaxed but there is a fear that restrictions might be brought back after the country had a spike in transmissions. The five-day average from Johns Hopkins University is still green, but that might change if there is a rise in the number of people falling sick.
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