Business
2020.03.28 02:23 GMT+8

Global Business Daily: Global recession, U.S. fears, FTSE fall

Updated 2020.03.28 02:23 GMT+8
Arij Limam

"It is clear that we have entered a recession," warned International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva. Saying that the global downturn will be worse than that after the 2008 global financial crisis.

In a joint statement, the IMF and the World Bank also called for governments to put debt repayments on hold, to help developing nations as the COVID-19 pandemic starts to cripple the global economy.   

Indeed, the coronavirus infected its first major world leader as the UK's Boris Johnson tweeted that he had been infected. 

"Over the last 24 hours I have developed mild symptoms and tested positive for coronavirus. I am now self-isolating, but I will continue to lead the government's response via video-conference as we fight this virus," he wrote. 

Britain's health secretary Matt Hancock has also tested positive for the coronavirus, as cases in the UK continue to rise.

Fears for global finances were heightened after cases of COVID-19 in the world's biggest economy, the U.S., overtook those of both China and Italy, making it the highest in the world.

We all know that tourism has been one of the worst-hit industries on a global scale, but just how bad is the damage? Well, the World Tourism Organization has said the number of international tourist arrivals will fall by a massive 20 to 30 percent this year, with losses of $300 to $450 billion.

Global trade has also been widely affected, as the spokesman for the World Trade Organization, Keith Rockwell, told CGTN Europe that "figures are going to be even worse than what we saw in 2009 during the global financial crisis." You can read the rest of that interview below.

We also spoke to the former Portuguese finance minister, Jorge Braga de Macedo, following the G20 video conference yesterday in which leaders said they were committed to present a "united front" against the virus. Watch him break down what was discussed at the conference below. 

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Happy reading,

Arij Limam

Digital correspondent

The coronavirus pandemic has driven the global economy into a crash that will require massive funding to help developing nations, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned. "It is clear that we have entered a recession" that will be worse than that after the 2008 global financial crisis, she said. 

The U.S. may quickly become the new epicenter of the coronavirus, as the number of confirmed cases tops 86,000, overtaking both China and Italy to become the highest in the world. Heightening fears for business around the world that rely on the global economic superpower. Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump during a phone call on Friday that he would have China's support in fighting the virus.

Britain's FTSE 100 share index fell by 3.6 percent on Friday, with losses in travel and home builder stocks halting a three-day rally fueled by stimulus actions to avert an economic meltdown

Mobile operator Vodafone said it would introduce 30 days' free access to unlimited mobile data for half a million of its Pay Monthly customers and upgrade the contracts for those who are flagged as vulnerable during the coronavirus outbreak.

Volkswagen's chief financial officer called on the European Central Bank (ECB) to accelerate purchases of short-term debt, the Financial Times reported on Friday. The German car maker has said it may have to cut jobs if the pandemic is not brought under control as it is still spending about 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) a week.

Almost one in five German companies sees itself at acute risk of insolvency due to the coronavirus crisis, a survey from the DIHK Chambers of Commerce showed, pointing to the heavy toll the virus outbreak could take on Europe's largest economy.

Singapore Airlines secured up to S$19 billion ($13.27 billion) in funding to help see it through the coronavirus crisis. It is the single biggest financing package announced by an airline since demand plunged because of the pandemic, forcing carriers around the world to ground planes, put staff on unpaid leave and scramble to raise more cash to ensure their survival.

Airport services group John Menzies, which is among the biggest providers of fueling, ground handling, lounge services and maintenance, is laying off half its global workforce due the coronavirus-related slump in air travel, and will need special dispensation to get aid from a UK emergency fund for which it does not currently qualify.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Friday that the coronavirus economic stimulus bill before Congress is not an airline bailout and that taxpayers will be compensated for relief given to companies hobbled by the global pandemic.

The World Tourism Organization said that the number of international tourist arrivals will fall by 20 to 30 percent in 2020 due to COVID-19, putting millions of jobs at risk. The Madrid-based UN body said in a statement that the drop will lead to an estimated loss of $300 to $450 billion in international tourism receipts.

Russia has called for a new OPEC+ deal to balance oil markets, as the head of the country's sovereign wealth fund tells Reuters it might be possible if other countries join in, adding that countries should also cooperate to cushion the economic fallout from coronavirus. A previous OPEC+ pact to curb oil production to support prices, fell apart earlier this month, sending global oil prices into a tailspin.

Banks should halt 2020 dividend payments to preserve capital and keep lending to businesses and households until the impact of the coronavirus epidemic is clearer, the European Banking Federation (EBF) said.

A three-week lockdown in India aimed at stopping the coronavirus is causing a breakdown in the supply chain, deeply impacting farmers and consumers. It is especially hurting hundreds of millions of rural and urban poor in the world's second most populous country.

Africa-focused miner Petra Diamonds on Friday suspended its production forecast for fiscal 2020 of 3.8 million carat and said it was in "active talks" with a South African lender for near-term financing, amid worries over the worsening coronavirus crisis.

 

G20 leaders held a two-hour video conference on Thursday in which they said they were committed to presenting a united front against the coronavirus pandemic, calling it their "absolute priority" to tackle its health, social and economic impacts. This came after the leaders, whose countries make up 80 percent of the world's GDP, had been criticized for their slow responses to the pandemic.

CGTN Europe spoke with Jorge Braga de Macedo, former Portuguese Finance Minister and fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation, about the G20's response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Keith Rockwell is the spokesman for the World Trade Organization. He spoke to CGTN Europe about trade in essential goods including medical equipment and what countries need to be doing to ease the strain of the pandemic on global trade.

 

What, if anything, is known about how COVID-19 has disrupted global trade so far? 

Well, our economists are still crunching the numbers, our forecast will be out at the beginning of next month. But we know this right now, those numbers are going to be very bad indeed. The director general, Roberto Acevedo, said the other day that he believes these figures are going to be even worse than what we saw in 2009 during the global financial crisis. And in that year, trade volume collapsed by 12 percent. 

China's industrial production in the month of February was down 13.5 percent, 3.3 million Americans sought unemployment benefits last week. What we're looking at here is very serious indeed. We are looking at a range of numbers for trade falling.

 

In terms of trade in essential goods to respond to the crisis, such as medical equipment and so on, do you have concerns that some are being prevented from export and what impact is that likely to have?

Now, I should begin by saying WTO rules provide for considerable flexibility for governments to take actions that are in the interests of their people, whether it's health, whether it's security. This can take the form of export restrictions, it can take the form of temporary tariff increases. What's important is these measures must be, firstly, temporary and secondly, transparent. 

What we've seen with respect to export restrictions over the course of the last couple of weeks is that they're heavily oriented towards medical products, face masks, other protective items, in some cases ventilators. Interestingly, on the trade facilitation side, we've seen many governments steeply cutting their tariffs on imports of medicine. So we're seeing a mixed picture. 

Now, there is a lot of scope for further action. We've been looking closely at what tariff levels are, and you might be surprised to know that, for example, the average global tariff on soap, hand soap, is 17 percent. The kinds of products that are used by people operating on the front lines in this battle against the pandemic, you're seeing an average tariff there of about 9 percent.

 

And would that be down to individual countries or is that something the WTO can facilitate? 

Well, it's down to individual countries. We understand that when a moment of crisis follows like this, governments need to take action quickly. We've seen some very impressive action from the G20 with respect to fiscal and monetary policy. They had a meeting, a virtual meeting of leaders yesterday, they've announced $5 trillion-worth of fiscal stimulus, which central banks are coordinating. But in addition to this, it's very important that they keep markets open. 

No country in the world, not China, not the United States, not Germany, no country is capable of going out on its own in this kind of situation. And in terms of importing, well, it's very interesting to see the largest producers of healthcare equipment are China, U.S., Germany, Switzerland all of those countries are the leading exporters, they're also leading importers. So it gives you an indication of how important trade is in terms of meeting the needs of people with respect to medical products and medicines. 

 

Clearly we're not at the end of this crisis yet, unfortunately. What are the prospects for recovery when we are, and how can the WTO help? 

Well, trade is going to be a critical element in terms of the bounce-back that we're going to need. Countries need to be able to help each other and one way they can do that is through trade. A coordinated effort to try to make trade more free, try to make trade more predictable and more stable. We're going to see a very large fall in trade in the coming months. 

What we do not need are additional barriers to trade going up that are going to make this more difficult. Trade can be a multiplier, it can help to really springboard off the fiscal stimulus that's been going on now and help countries to work together and try to lift each other out of the quagmire that's very likely to ensue.

 

As Keith Rockwell mentioned above, China, the U.S. and Germany are leading global exporters. Today's graph shows that this trend hasn't changed, as last year these countries were among the top partners for EU Member State imports. 

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