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2020.01.24 02:18 GMT+8

ECB launches its first strategy review since 2003

Updated 2020.01.24 02:18 GMT+8
By Rebecca Bundhun

ECB president Christine Lagarde arrives for the news conference (Credit: Daniel Roland/AFP)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has launched a major policy review. 

The ECB's first strategy review since 2003 will examine the inflation target and how it is calculated – and could lead to changes in the bank's central aims. The ECB currently has an inflation target of "below, but close to, two percent." However, despite efforts involving injecting cheap money into the economy, inflation has fallen well short of this target. 

The strategy review – expected to be completed by the end of this year – will look at why this is, as well as examining other issues including employment and climate change. ECB president Christine Lagarde insisted "We will not leave any stone unturned and how we measure inflation is clearly something we need to look at."

The review was officially announced on Thursday at the ECB's first monetary policy meeting of 2020, when the bank – as widely expected – confirmed that key interest rates would remain unchanged. The main deposit rate stays at a historic low of -0.5 percent.

Lagarde said that economic data "pointed to some stabilization in euro area growth dynamics" and said that some of the risks had decreased because of receding uncertainty surrounding international trade. However, Lagarde warned that the manufacturing sector remains a drag on growth. 

The ECB expects interest rates "to remain at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to close to, but below, two percent," said Lagarde, who became the bank's president in November.

Not every analyst shares Lagarde's expectation that interest rates will remain stable. Jorg Kramer, the chief economist at Commerzbank, wrote in a research note: "I expect the market to at least temporarily speculate about the possibility of an ECB rate hike in the coming year. Firstly, leading economic indicators are likely to stabilize further. Secondly, core inflation has drifted upwards since the summer of last year."

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