The cost of Brexit: Is the City of London ready?
Updated 22:23, 28-Sep-2019
Juliet Mann
Europe;London
02:42

With the former boss of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, recently taking to Twitter to describe Brexit Britain as "making US politics seem so sensible and good-natured," CGTN's Juliet Mann looks at how sentiment in the city is shaping up, as the clock ticks down to the leave date on 31 October.

With just weeks to go until the UK is due to leave the European Union, there are mixed signals over the true impact of a hard Brexit on one of the world's biggest financial centers. While leaving the EU could mean the end of easy access to one of the world's most powerful trading blocs, some in the City of London believe it may be the boon the Square Mile needs. They argue that, free from red tape and regulatory demands, London will be better placed to take advantage of some of the biggest growth areas in international finance, such as fintech and currency and derivatives trading.

However, those vehemently opposed to a hard Brexit say the evidence so far points the other way. Consultants EY estimate that $1.2 trillion-worth of assets have left the UK since the country voted to leave the EU in June 2016, along with 7,000 jobs in the financial services sector. The pro-European think tank New Financial claims that 275 big financial firms have moved at least some of their employees or operations to other parts of the EU, where they can continue to trade without interruption. Europe's other major financial centers – Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam – have been actively lobbying for post-Brexit business with banks and institutions around the world. 

As uncertainty continues over the detail of the so called "divorce bill," which the UK will have to pay for leaving the bloc, there is evidence that market activity is falling. The number of firms launching public offerings (IPOs), was down 23 percent in 2018 compared with the previous year, suggesting companies are either delaying flotation plans or are seeking opportunities on some of the world's other major stock markets.    

However, defenders of London's place as a financial center dating back to the time of the Romans, point out the city's fundamental advantages remain unchanged regardless of Brexit. These include a large, highly qualified labor force, a central time zone that allows for both Asian and US market trading and a generally laissez-faire regulatory environment.     

The City of London accounts for an estimated 12 percent of the UK's economic output. It employs more than 2 million people and the financial services industry is the country's largest single payer of corporate tax. Commentators on all sides agree its future is crucial to the prosperity of the UK, whether it stays in the EU or not.