Europe
2019.09.21 21:23 GMT+8

Brexit: What trade alternatives does the UK have after leaving the EU?

Updated 2019.09.21 21:23 GMT+8
Corey Aunger

UK-bound imports being checked in Calais. Source: AP

The UK would need to form new trade agreements if it leaves the EU without a deal.

The government has said it is working on new trade arrangements in the event of a no-deal Brexit because current trade pacts the UK has as part of the EU would no longer stand.

Figures show the UK is the fifth biggest importer in the world – with the trade valued at $617 billion.

While just over half of all goods imported by the UK come from EU countries, China and the US are the second and third biggest single sources of UK imports after Germany.

Data from the United Nations Comtrade Database show the UK's seven biggest imports are cars, gold, crude petrol, refined petrol, packaged medicine, broadcast equipment and vehicle parts.

By looking at what the UK imports the most and which countries are the main exporters of those goods, CGTN has examined some of the potential agreements that could replace EU trade.

Germany has both the biggest share of the worldwide market, at 21 percent, and the UK market, at 45 percent. 

The next four biggest exporters of cars in the world all have much smaller shares of the UK market and are not members of the EU, so could potentially be trade opportunities for the UK outside the bloc.

The biggest exporters of gold in the world are all non-EU members and have a good share of the UK market. 

The UK currently does not import any crude petrol from three of the five biggest exporters in the world. 

If there were a no-deal Brexit, the UK could form new agreements with these countries.

Currently the UK imports 55 percent of its crude oil from Norway.

Norway does have access to the EU's single market but is not part of the customs union, meaning it can form trade agreements with other countries around the world. 

 

Of the biggest exporters, the Netherlands, which is a member of the EU, is the biggest source of refined petrol for the UK.

The other major players have a lesser share of the market, meaning the UK could form new agreements with them once it has left the EU. 

Around two-thirds of the UK's packaged medicine imports come from EU countries, which are also the biggest exporters of the product worldwide.

Of the biggest exporters, the US and Switzerland – which is not in the EU's customs union – are the largest that are not part of the bloc. 

Like many of the UK's biggest imports, the US tends to be a key player in the world market for most goods.

The UK could potentially form a trade agreement with the US, with which the UK shares a "special relationship." 

China dominates the broadcasting equipment market, with the second biggest exporter having a vastly smaller share. 

The UK's biggest source for these products is China, followed by the Netherlands. 

Much like the cars market, vehicle parts is dominated by Germany both worldwide and in the UK. 

The next four big hitters have a substantially smaller slice of the UK market and, therefore, could become potential trading partners.

 

Who could the UK trade with?

David Henig, director of UK trade policy project for European Centre for International Political Economy, says there is "no particular reason why" the UK couldn't form a trade deal with any country, adding that trade deals tend to be matters of politics rather than economics. 

"The US, Australia and New Zealand are clearly political priorities, not chosen on the basis of particular economic opportunities or likely gains."

Mr Henig, who formerly worked on trade and investment for the UK government, says the UK leaving the EU creates economic and trade uncertainty.

"It also isn't clear how the UK economy will adjust to Brexit... and you want to be looking at future opportunities.

"Our priorities may be more in services."

The UK imported £78.7 billion ($98.4 billion) worth of services, the latest figures from the country's Office for National Statistics (ONS) show. 

More than half of all services imported came from European countries – 83 percent of which are EU member states.

The US is the UK's second biggest origin of imports behind individual EU member states.

Figures from the ONS show that information and communication make up nearly one third (31.8 percent) of all the UK's service imports.

Science and tech services (24.1 percent), manufacturing (14.7 percent), retail trade (8.1 percent) and finance (8 percent) are the UK's next biggest service imports.

Mr Henig has criticized the UK government for not publishing its trade rationale ahead of Brexit. 

"What we should have expected to see from the UK government by now is a rationale for their trade choices, whether economic or political," Mr Henig says.

"That has never been published, and until we see something like this, it is very hard to understand their rationale for priorities."

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